Top NBA Betting Picks for Friday, October 9th

The Los Angeles Lakers are one win away from winning the NBA Finals over the Miami Heat. Jimmy Butler and company face a tough climb out a 3-1 deficit, but it’s been done, just ask LeBron James. The Lakers bounced back with a six-point victory versus the Heat in Game 4, and they could go home early with a win in their first elimination game of the Finals.

Here are my top NBA betting plays for October 9th, 2020. You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.

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LeBron James to double-double AND Lakers win (-125) 

• LeBron has double-doubled in three of four NBA Finals games
• LeBron averages 27.8 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 8.5 assists in the NBA Finals
• LeBron has averaged 26.9 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.8 assists in 19 playoff games
• LeBron has triple-doubled in five of 19 playoff games for the Lakers 

LeBron James has double-doubled in 14-of-19 (73.6%) playoff games and won 11 of those 14 games (78.5%) with the Lakers. So, he’s won this player performance double on FanDuel, 11-of-19 (57.8%) times in the playoffs.

I like his chances to do so again in an elimination game, and in the past three closeout games they’ve won, he’s triple-doubled in two of them, versus Portland and Denver. In the lone game he didn’t, he posted a double-double of 29 points and 11 rebounds with seven assists versus Houston. The King has dominated the postseason and is -1000 odds to win NBA Finals MVP after his Game 4 performance of 28 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists.

He’s double-doubled in three-of-four Finals games, and they’ve won two of those three games. We haven’t seen a triple-double in this Finals from LeBron yet, something he’s done five times this postseason. If we see him do it in Game 5, I won’t be surprised, but I’m confident he at least double-doubles.

Lakers 1Q ML (-188)

The Lakers have been the NBA’s best first-quarter team in the postseason, averaging 30.7 points per first quarter and a +3.8 point margin, both the best in the league. In this series, the Lakers have won the first quarter three of four games and averaged 27.5 points and allowed 24.8 versus the Heat (+3.1). The spread for Game 5 is -2.5 (-110), right in line with how it has played out.

The first quarter ML is an excellent parlay piece for tonight, and if you’re doing a same game parlay, you can do Lakers 1Q ML, 1H ML, and Full Game ML for +130, a trifecta that’s paid off in three of four games with the odds decreasing after each outing.

LA has shot 53.9% from the field in the first quarter and 44.1% from three with 4.8 free-throw attempts versus Miami. The Heat, on the other hand, shot 44.6% from the field and 32.3% from three. Miami also averaged 4.0 free-throw attempts in the first quarter of the series. LA has won 15-of-19 (78.9%) of first quarters in the postseason, an astounding number that requires money to be spent every Lakers’ game.

Lakers 1H -3.5 (-121)

Like the first quarter, the Lakers have dominated the first half. They also won 15-of-19 first halves this postseason, posting a league-best +6.7 point differential. LA has won three-of-four first halves in this series, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t again in championship-clinching Game 5.

LA would have covered the 4-point halftime spread in Game 4 if not for Tyler Herro’s late rebound basket with 3.1 seconds left to cut the Lakers halftime lead from 49-45 for the push to 49-47 for the Heat cover. Miami has covered the halftime spread in two-straight games, but I still lean with LA when it comes to Game 5. 

The Lakers led the postseason with 51.8% from the field in the first half. They ranked in the top five in three-point shooting (39.1%) and free-throw attempts (13.4). Despite the Lakers failing to cover the halftime spread in the past two games, they’ve shot better than the Heat, going 46.3% from the field compared to 45.8%. LA attempted 18.5 three-pointers in those two first halves and averaged 51.5 points. 

Anthony Davis had three fouls in the first half of Game 4, struggling again, finishing with 22 points, his second-lowest total of the Finals. He scored 32 and 34 points in the first two games, and the Lakers covered both of those first-half spreads. I’m expecting a better game from Davis, LeBron, and the company in the first half. 

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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.