Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/22)
Tip off your Christmas vacation with the six-game NBA slate on tap for tonight, and add some interest by tailing our top plays for Friday night’s action.
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Friday’s NBA Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets (-8.5) | O/U 226.5 (-110/-110)
The Mavericks are currently dealing with many injuries, and it’s been impacting the team, as they have lost three out of their last four. No injury is more impactful than Luka Doncic’s quad injury, and he will miss this game. Dallas has a +0.7 net rating, but when Doncic was off the floor last year, they were nearly -7.
The emergence of the Rockets has been great to watch this year. They are seventh in adjusted defensive rankings, and they’ve played the seventh-toughest schedule, so they are legit. In the last game against Dallas, Houston had the better field goal percentage, but was -5 in turnover differential and -4 in three-point differential, with Doncic dropping 41 points.
You take him off the court, and that’s a lot of points to lose. With the Rockets third in opponents’ effective field goal percentage and first in the opponents’ three-point shooting, this is big for this matchup.
Pick: Rockets -8.5 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat (-1.5) | O/U 238.5 (-110/-110)
These two met 11 days ago, with the Heat grabbing the 117-109 win. The Hawks are not very good at guarding in the paint, being 24th in opponent’s shot percentage at the rim and points per game allowed to the center. That translated to Bam Adebayo dropping 26 points and 17 rebounds. He will play a large factor again.
What Adebayo gives in offense, he lacks in defense, as his 111.4 defensive rating is 21st among starting centers. That’s why it’s a good thing this smaller Hawks lineup will primarily take their opportunities from the perimeter. Atlanta is top 11 in mid-range and three-point shooting. This Miami defense is pretty average at defending those spots but not as good as in previous years.
With the Heat winning that first game as an underdog, this has flipped the odds to make them a favorite. They are very small favorites, so take them to win by more than one at home.
Pick: Heat -1.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5) | O/U 245.5 (-110/-110)
The rollercoaster ride of the Suns has been exhausting. At one point, they lost five of seven, then won seven straight and now have lost seven of 10. Bradley Beal being out is not significant because he’s missed most of the season, but now they’ll be without Jusuf Nurkic due to personal reasons.
The Kings grabbed 48 points in the paint in the last game against Phoenix, so expect that to go up. They also are a fast-paced, high-volume shooting team. The Suns are the polar opposite. Sacramento’s weakness is usually allowing their opponents to shoot at a higher volume.
Phoenix’s 83 shots in the last matchup against Sacramento were below their season average of 85. Their rough patch could continue if they can’t maintain the Kings’ pace.
Pick: Kings -3.5 (-110)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- Sunday NFL Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks
- College Football Bowl Game Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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