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Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (1/21)

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Sunday is a small six game NBA slate. Even though there aren't many games, there are a few matchups that really stand out as great games. Let's dive a bit deeper into those games and find the best plays on the NBA Sunday schedule.

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Sunday's Best NBA Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Clippers

For better or worse, we're seeing a record rate of blowouts in the NBA this season. The Nets and Clippers will matchup on Sunday afternoon in a game that is shaping up to be another one.

The Nets have been on a terrible slide after starting the season 13-10. They've gone just 4-14 in the 18 games since and eight of those losses were by nine points or more. They meet up with a Clippers team that is as hot as any in the league, 18-4 in their last 22 games. 14 of those 18 wins have been by nine points or more.

Los Angeles hasn't played since Tuesday and this is only their second game in the last seven days. They're as rested as they're going to be all season and they should be a full-go in this matinee matchup. Offensively they've been elite on this current run. They've scored 121.5 points per game and scored under 111 in only three of the contests. Those came against Minnesota and Boston, the top two defenses in the league per defensive rating, and the Lakers who we know like to save themselves for big games.

The Nets have only managed 110.7 points per game in their current slide, and have scored under 110 in seven of the last ten. This is also the third game on their West Coast road trip. With a Friday and Saturday night spent in Los Angeles, it's going to be hard to see them getting up for a midafternoon game on Sunday.

The numbers indicate this should be a double-digit win in a vacuum for the Clippers. Add in the spot for both Brooklyn and Los Angeles and it's a recipe for another NBA blowout.

Pick: Clippers -10.5 (-110)

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic

If you like old-school defensive basketball, these are the teams for you. Neither Miami nor Orlando has been torching the nets recently, and the total the books are opening with is indicative of that. In a league where we are starting to routinely see totals in the 230s and 240s for regular season games, this matchup is sitting at 215.5.

Orlando has the profile of an under-team. Their offense ranks just 24th in adjusted offensive rating, anchored by the 24th-ranked eFG%. They've been held under 110 points in six consecutive games and four of those contests saw them score 100 or less. Defensively, however, they rank third due to a top-three-ranked defensive rebounding rate. This limits second-chance points and easy scores. 

Miami has also been unable to eclipse 110 in five consecutive games and their defense has improved throughout the season. Miami is one of only two teams in the league that actually have a better defensive-rebounding rate than Orlando. With neither team giving up second-chance points, both teams will have to be on their game shooting, but both teams are in the bottom third of the league in eFG%.

These teams have met twice in the regular season already. The first meeting saw a total of 121 points. Miami shot 15-of-29 from three in that game, well above their season average of 37.9%. The second game had a total of only 195. Both teams shot poorly in that game but were much closer to their season averages. Neither of these teams is executing well on offense right now so I expect this matchup to look closer to the latter performance and go under.

Pick: Under 215.5 (-110) 

Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns

The Pacers will finish up a six-game road trip on Sunday, the last five all coming against the Western Conference. They'll take on the Phoenix Suns who have been on fire recently, 9-3 SU over their last 12 games to get back squarely into the playoff picture. The Suns sit as 5-point favorites for this matchup. This is due partially to the Pacers' schedule which has them playing their third game in four nights. Typically this is a disastrous spot spot for a team, but the Pacers may have an atypical edge.

Earlier in the week, the Pacers shook up the NBA world by trading for Pascal Siakam. Indiana is hoping he and Tyrese Haliburton can be the core that they build a championship contender around and the pair made their debut together on Friday. Not only was this Siakam's first game with Indiana, but it was Haliburton's return to the lineup too after a brief injury absence. Although this is Indiana's third game in four days, their two star players are pretty well rested.

Season-long numbers indicate this line should probably be closer to a 2.5-point spread in favor of Phoenix. The schedule spot, as well as Phoenix's hot streak, have inflated this a tad too high. Even though they've been winning, they're only 4-6 ATS in the last ten. Phoenix has had some issues with the more elite offenses they've faced and Indiana is second in adjusted offensive rating.

This spread is too high. Even in a bad schedule spot for Indiana, they're the right side here. With Haliburton and now Siakam in the lineup, the Pacers are live for a cover on Sunday.

Pick: Pacers +5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:


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