Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (2/4)
With a football free Sunday, the NBA finally has a full slate for the fans out there. Nine games line the schedule with plenty of angles for entertainment and intrigue. Here are a few of my best bets for the full Sunday schedule.
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Sunday’s Best NBA Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All wagers are for 1 unit
Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics
Don't get me wrong, this game is a massive mismatch. The Celtics have the best record in the NBA and their adjusted net rating is over two points higher then the next closest team. They have the top-rated offense and a top-three defense. They do so many things well and are rightfully the favorites to win the Larry O'Brien trophy this summer. However, this line is way too large.
Where this line currently sits would be the largest for Boston on the season. They're only 23-24-2 ATS on the season and 13-11 at home. As putrid as Memphis has been this season, dealing with suspensions and injuries they've been pretty good ATS recently. In their last 10 contests, they've compiled a 7-3 ATS record and they've shown that although they've been outmatched often, they aren't backing down from any opponent.
The offense this year for Memphis has been bad with a league-worst adjusted offensive rating. They don't shoot the ball particularly well, they turn it over too much and they don't get to the free throw line. However, they'll get chances to score because no defense in the league turns teams over less than the Celtics with only an 11.0% turnover rate. Without the ability to turn their opponent over they'll rely on a hot shooting night to cover this large number.
Boston is capable of getting on a role offensively and pulling away to make this play look ridiculous, but the numbers suggest this should be closer to a 14.5 to 15.5-point spread. Where we're currently at is just too high. Memphis has the fight to keep this close and has done so in many contests recently based on their ATS record. I like them to keep this one just close enough to cover this massive number.
Pick: Grizzlies +16.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat
In the last few years, Miami has been able to coast through the regular season and turn it on come playoff time. They're trying their best to do the same this year as they currently sit with a 26-23 record and are squarely in a position for another date in the Play-In Tournament. Their recent play has been the biggest concern. In the last nine contests, they've compiled a 2-7 SU record while going 2-6-1 ATS.
It's been the offense for Miami that has really hit a wall. During this nine-game stretch, they've averaged just 104.1 PPG. Even the trade to bring in Terry Rozier hasn't provided much of a spark as the guard is currently shooting 30.9% from the field since joining the team. He was brought in to help spark this offense, but his performance isn't helping a team that was already struggling to shoot the ball.
The Clippers come into this game on fire. Amid an Eastern Conference road trip, they've gone 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. They're looking to finish the trip out strong at Miami and Atlanta. Overall they've gone 7-3 in their last 10 ATS and have excelled as favorites on the season with a 24-14 ATS record.
A key component of this matchup will be the Clippers’ ability to shoot and rebound. Defensively, rebounding and staying away from fouling have been key factors of Heat defense. The Clippers only get to the line at a league-average rate so it's been a top-five shooting clip per eFG% that has driven the Clippers' offensive performance. Additionally, they're one of the best offensive-rebounding teams, making opponents pay even when the Clippers miss.
This is another bad matchup for a team living off of playoff success the last few years. We've started to become accustomed to this from Miami and perhaps once April rolls around we'll start backing the Heat, but for now, they're a fade.
Pick: Clippers -3.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz
One of the least talked about home court advantages in the NBA resides in Salt Lake City. For many reasons, the Jazz have performed well at home and/or opponents have performed poorly. The Jazz are 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS when playing in front of the home crowd.
On Sunday the Jazz will welcome the Milwaukee Bucks who will be on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in Dallas on Saturday night. This game on a neutral court would likely be close, but the Bucks are likely to rest a starter or two due to the schedule. Additionally, the Bucks have struggled mightily away from home this season. At home, the Bucks have compiled a 21-5 record, but on the road, they're only 12-11 and 9-14 ATS.
The Jazz have been playing much better over the last month as well. They're pushing hard for a playoff spot down the stretch. Games like this are key to making that happen. Conversely, the Bucks haven't seen much of an improvement since Doc Rivers took over as head coach. Things will likely get better in Milwaukee, especially on the road, but this isn't the game where that starts.
Pick: Jazz -1 (-110)
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