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Top NBA Odds & Picks: Thursday (Mavericks vs. Timberwolves)

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The National Basketball Association has just one game on the schedule for Thursday night. The Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves are meeting in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals at Target Center in Minneapolis. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on TNT.

Let’s keep building that bankroll for the rest of the NBA playoffs with our best bets for Thursday, May 30. Here are our top NBA picks for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves.

Thursday’s Best NBA Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All wagers are for 1 unit

Dallas Mavericks (+166) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-198) | O/U 209.5 (-112/-108)

The Mavericks fired out to a 3-0 series lead, including victories in each of the first two games in the Twin Cities. In Game 4, the Timberwolves flipped the script, winning in Dallas and extending their season at least one more game.

Minnesota picked up a 105-100 win, blazing up the nets with a 52.7% (39-of-74) field-goal percentage, while knocking down a 45.8% (11-of-24) mark from behind the three-point line. It wasn’t perfect, as the Wolves were just 64.0% (16-of-25) from the free-throw line, leaving plenty of points on the floor. But Minnesota outrebounded Dallas by a 40-to-38 margin, and the Mavericks were a dismal 42.0% (34-of-81) from the floor and 35.0% (14-of-40) from behind the arc. An impressive 85.7% (18-of-21) mark from the charity stripe was the difference, keeping them in the game despite the ugly shooting numbers.

Luka Doncic did his part to stick a fork in the Timberwolves, going for 28 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists for the triple-double, and he hit four three-pointers, too. He was one of five Mavs to hit double-digits in points despite the off shooting performance for the team as a whole.

Anthony Edwards promised to shoot early and often in Game 4. He lived up to his word. He posted a game-best 29 points, hitting 11-of-25 from the field, including 2-of-5 from behind the arc. He also chipped in with 10 rebounds and nine assists, nearly matching Doncic with a triple-double. Rudy Gobert also had a double-double, finishing with 13 points, 10 rebounds and a blocked shot, while all five starters had 10+ points.

What can we expect in Game 5 in the Twin Cities?

The Timberwolves are looking to get the series back to the Metroplex for Game 6, but the Mavericks catching 4.5 points is too much to pass up. The Mavs are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in this series while going 9-5 ATS in the past 14 games since Game 2 of the Clippers series. As an underdog of 4.5 or more points, Dallas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in these playoffs since Game 2 of the Thunder series. Take the points, and don’t look back, either straight up or as part of a Same-Game Parlay opportunity.

As far as the total is concerned, the books adjusted the total in Game 4, closing at 211, and we had our first under result of the series. The under snapped a 4-0 over run for the Mavs. The over is still 6-3 in the past nine games for the Timberwolves, too. The lean is to go over in Game 5.

As far as player props are concerned, Mavericks center Daniel Gafford has stepped up his game this series. The 25-year-old out of Arkansas is good for 10.8 points per game and 6.3 rebounds per game in four games against Minnesota. In a losing effort in Game 4, Gafford had 12 points, eight boards and three blocked shots with a steal, and he was a perfect 6-of-6 from the field. Back Gafford to at least get to double digits in points yet again.

Doncic is listed with a questionable tag for Game 5 due to an ankle or knee injury. The best bet is that he’ll play. Seriously, though, he is a warrior and there is little chance he sits out, even though a questionable tag usually means a 50-50 chance of playing. He is averaging 31.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 9.0 assists and 2.3 steals per game this series. He has also hit at least four triples in each of the past three outings. He is a solid play at -110 to get to 4+ triples made in Game 5.

Bet: Mavericks +4.5 (-108) & Over 209.5 (-112)

Same-Game Parlay

If you’re building a Same-Game Parlay (SGP), definitely roll with the Mavericks catching the points on the road, and go high on the total. Gafford has been a huge surprise in the middle for the Mavs, and his star has shined in this series. And, as mentioned above, Doncic is likely to go, despite his questionable tag. Look for Doncic to will his team through this game and into the NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics. If all of these plays come through, the SGP will help you multiply your initial wager by nearly six times. Good luck in Game 5.

Total Parlay Odds: +585

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Daniel E. Dobish is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Daniel, check out his archive and follow him @danieledobish.

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