Top NBA Playoffs Odds & Picks: Tuesday (5/21)
The Indiana Pacers will travel to Boston to take on the Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight. The game will be featured on ESPN at 8:00 pm ET and begins the Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs.
The Pacers used insane offense to escape the Knicks in Games 6 and 7. Meanwhile, the Celtics didn’t even have to play Games 6 and 7 and have had much more rest. What does that mean heading into Game 1 of the ECF?
Check out our best bets for tonight’s matchup below.
Tuesday’s Top NBA Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All wagers are for 1 unit
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics (Spread)
The Boston Celtics are the most balanced team in the NBA Playoffs. They won’t have Kristaps Porzingis in the starting lineup yet. However, in the playoffs, the Celtics have held teams to no more than 28.6% of offensive rebounds in any game.
In nine of the last 10 games, the Celtics have allowed no more than 22% of offensive rebounds in the playoffs. In addition, you won’t see the Pacers reach the foul line often. The Celtics are among the best defenses in the NBA because they can minimize fouls.
That said, the Pacers will hold onto the ball and will still get good looks. But if they have a poor shooting night, it’ll be hard for Indiana to recover from that. The Pacers won’t dominate the glass or get to the foul line. They’ll limit turnovers and get more shots up. But if shots don’t fall, it won’t matter.
On the other hand, the Pacers have scored the most points per 100 possessions in the NBA. However, the Celtics are second. They’re one of the few teams that can match the Pacers offensively.
The difference between the two teams is Boston’s defense. The Pacers really struggled to stop the Knicks on defense and will have an even harder time against the Celtics, who have multiple superstars like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Even without Porzingis, the Celtics have more depth and reliable players off the bench. That’ll make it way too tough for the Pacers.
I’m on the Celtics -10.5 (+100) for tonight’s Game 1.
NBA Pick: Celtics -10.5 (+100)
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics (Total)
It’s hard to ignore what the Pacers did over the last two games, especially considering they faced elimination. The Pacers scored 141.3 points per 100 possessions in Game 6 and added 146.1 points per 100 possessions in Game 7.
An above-average number is about 115 points per 100 possessions. Beyond that, the Pacers shot an effective field goal percentage of 75.3% in Game 7 and added 32.1% of offensive rebounds in that game.
In Game 6, while the Pacers shot a 61% effective field goal percentage, Indiana brought down 43.9% of offensive rebounds. As noted, it’s unlikely the Pacers will add a ton of offensive rebounds in this game. It’s also doubtful they will sustain this kind of success offensively. After all, the Knicks looked fatigued, not just physically but mentally, in those final two games. But if the Pacers can score about 120 points per 100 possessions, that’d be enough to help reach the Over.
Like the Pacers, the Celtics are a very good offense, facing an average defense in the playoffs. Indiana allowed at least 130 points per 100 possessions in three playoff games this season. All three of those games have something in common. The Pacers were on the road in all of them.
Therefore, let’s take the Over 220.5 (-115).
NBA Pick: Over 220.5 (-115)