Top NBA Playoffs Odds & Picks: Wednesday (5/1)
Many of us expected the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers to head home after their Game 5 matchups. However, neither happened last night.
The 76ers survived the Knicks on the road in overtime, while the Bucks dominated the Pacers with their best offensive output of the playoffs without Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Here are the NBA picks for the two matchups.
Wednesday’s Best NBA Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All wagers are for 1 unit
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
Despite winning against the Miami Heat in Game 5, the Celtics had their worst offensive output of the playoffs. Sure, they scored 102 points instead of the 101 in Game 3. But analytically, the Celtics only added 108.5 points per 100 possessions. In Game 3, the Celtics scored 108.6 points per 100 possessions.
After that Game 3 matchup, the Celtics responded with 125.6 points per 100 possessions, shot a 55.6% effective field goal percentage with just 6.1% of turnovers, and dominated the Heat for a 20-point win.
Also, in that Game 3 matchup, the Celtics allowed 122 points per 100 possessions and played their worst defensively. But in Game 5, the most recent matchup, the Celtics played their best defense of the playoffs, holding the Heat to 94.6 points per 100 possessions and a 45.9% effective field goal percentage.
The Boston defense has improved drastically as the series has progressed. Meanwhile, the offense tends to bounce back after low outputs.
Consider backing the Celtics to take care of business and move on to the next round at -14.
Bet: Celtics -14 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers
It’s already official. Kawhi Leonard won’t play in Game 5. But he also didn’t play in Game 4, and the Clippers scored 116 points with a 65% effective field goal percentage.
Paul George and James Harden each scored 33 points while taking under 20 shots in Game 4, where the Clippers added a road win to even up the series.
Leonard is still a major loss to this Clippers group. But Los Angeles struggled to find any consistency offensively to begin the series. They just practically figured it all out on the road in Dallas. Now, they’ll take that momentum back home, which can only help.
Ultimately, we just watched the Bucks without two superstars win against the Pacers on their home court with tremendous offense. We will likely see the same with the Clippers.
It’s not like the Clippers don’t have stars. For example, Paul George and James Harden are much more “elite†players than Bobby Portis and Khris Middleton.
On the defensive end, the Clippers have done well forcing turnovers and limiting effective field goal percentages. The Mavericks have shot no better than a 51.8% effective field goal percentage in three of four games. Dallas has also turned the ball over at least 15.4% of the time in two of the four games.
Recently, Los Angeles hasn’t been good on the glass and typically doesn’t get to the foul line much. Therefore, they’ll need to do whatever they can to prevent the Mavericks from getting to the line frequently.
I’ll take the home team at +3.
Bet: Clippers +3 (-110)
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