Top NFL Week 3 Preseason Betting Picks For Sunday, August 29th (2021)

Coaching and quarterbacking are the two most important factors in exhibition football. They will be key once again in Sunday's five-game slate, which wraps up this year's preseason.

As we've seen with John Harbaugh's Baltimore Ravens, motivated head coaches whip their guys into the winning habit even for these meaningless games. And as the likes of the Los Angeles Rams and New York Giants have shown, shaky quarterback depth leads to preseason losses.

It's not always so simple, of course. Given coach Brian Flores's 5-1 record against the spread in exhibition games, Miami is tempting as a slight underdog at Cincinnati. But the Dolphins are resting their starters and playing it safe after last week's lopsided victory over the Falcons, so I'm steering clear. Meanwhile, I'm picking the heretofore hapless Giants to upset the Patriots — admittedly while plugging my nose.

Here are my top NFL plays for Sunday. (BettingPros consensus and U.S. sportsbook odds are listed here).

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Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 

Clubs in the midst of a quarterback battle hold a big edge in the preseason, as settled starters will usually rest. Even so, this line seems like a market overcorrection to the Jimmy Garoppolo-Trey Lance battle by the bay. After all, Jimmy G looks more like "Jimmy Gee," and Lance could be used sparingly after an extended effort last weekend.

And don't let the Silver and Black's near-loss against the Rams last week fool you. Raiders coach Jon Gruden figures to be trying hard here. Like Seattle's Pete Carroll and Minnesota's Mike Zimmer, he is among the mini-Harbaughs who clearly want to establish the winning habit heading into the real games. Gruden is 38-18 outright in preseasons over his career, and he is 8-2 in his current run with the Raiders.

San Francisco’s starters, including George Kittle and Fred Warner, are expected to finally see action in this dress rehearsal for the regular season - but so could Vegas veterans like quarterback Derek Carr.

Pick Raiders +3.5 (-105) at FanDuel

Raiders-49ers Under 35.5

The 49ers have been keeping their offense the official flavor of summer football: vanilla. The Cherry Garcia - those creative play packages that coach Kyle Shanahan is not-so-secretly drawing up for dual-threat quarterback Trey Lance - won't get served until the season starts.

In fact, both teams have been playing in line with the league-wide trend. That has led to the under hitting in all four of their preseason contests. It's not surprising, given their mutual emphasis on running and defense.

Pick Raiders-49ers u35.5 (-105) at FanDuel

New York Giants ML

The quarterback bake-off would seem to give New England an edge. Cam Newton hasn't officially beaten back Mac Jones for the job, and, for better or worse, the Giants are rolling with Daniel Jones.

Yet with Newton missing several days of practice this week because of confusion around the health and safety protocols, he may get few snaps, if any. Bill Belichick has been playing it coy publicly on the quarterback battle, as is his style. But he may have seen enough from Newton to stick with him, at least early in the year. Either way, he has surely seen enough from Jones to feel confident once he makes the inevitable switch to the rookie. That creates the possibility of neither signal-caller playing too deep into this contest.

Besides, Belichick has a long history of easing off the gas in the last exhibition game (traditionally the fourth week). In 25 prior preseasons dating to his days with the Cleveland Browns, his squads have won 36% of their finales but 62% of their earlier games. I can picture him telling his team that last week's 35-0 drubbing of the Eagles essentially put a bow on the preseason, although maybe not in those exact words.

The Giants, to be sure, have been a mess, especially on offense, as they’re without Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay. The team's bell-cow back and its top receiving target will probably sit out once more. However, the return of Jones could help the team find its rhythm. Head coach Joe Judge has indicated that he'll play Danny Dimes at long last - and most of the other available starters - at least for a quarter.

Pick Giants ML (+155) at DraftKings

Patriots-Giants Under 35.5

Like the Raiders and 49ers, these teams have done nothing but go under the game total in the past two weeks, fitting their M.O.s. Expect Belichick and Judge to bring clampdown defenses and fairly straightforward offenses, no matter how many starters see action.

Pick Patriots-Giants u35.5 (-105) at PointsBet

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Josh Friedman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @journalistjosh.