Top 5 NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bet Picks: Packers vs. 49ers (Saturday)

by Derek Brown |
Jan 18, 2024

The Divisional Round is here, and there's money to be made betting props this week. We have a plethora of juicy matchups to smash the overs for and some stingy defenses that should lead to some unders.

The first step to building to profiting this week, whether you're straight betting any of these lines or constructing some juicy parlays, is to pull up our Prop Bet Analyzer at Bettingpros.com and then tail these bets and more by hitting my profile at BettingPros.

Enjoy another fantastic week of football with some NFL prop action. Enjoy the sweats, and let's stack some cash this week.

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Packers vs. 49ers Divisional Round Prop Bet Picks

Aaron Jones o69.5 rushing yards

Many will shy away from this number because of the San Francisco 49ers' run defense, but I'm here to tell you that much like a hockey player with a face for the puck, the 9erâ€™s run defense has lost its teeth. Facing a fully healthy Jones will be tough for San Francisco. Since Week 16, he has averaged 23 touches and 134.2 total yards. In that same timeframe, among 35 qualifying backs, he has ranked eighth in explosive run rate, seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 13, San Francisco has quietly allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt with the 13th-lowest stuff rate. Across the same span, they have allowed THE highest yards per carry (5.06!) and the fourth-highest success rate to zone runs. Jones has at least 111 rushing yards in each of his last three games (Jones 62% zone).

Christian McCaffrey o89.5 rushing yards

This sounds like a tall order for McCaffrey, but it isn't. He has hit the over for this mark in four of his last five games, and the only game in which he didn't was against Washington when he left due to injury. McCaffrey should have no problems rolling up yardage against Green Bay. Since Week 13, the Packers have given up the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (McCaffrey 64.7% zone). Bet on good players. Bet on McCaffrey.

Romeo Doubs o35.5 receiving yards

Doubs has surpassed this line in five of his last nine games. Last week, the Packers utilized a committee rotation with their wide receivers, but Doubs led the way with a 66.7% route run rate. He was the only Green Bay wide receiver to log over a 53% route run rate. This week, he should lead the pack again. Since Week 14, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 54.1% of their defensive snaps. This season, Doubs has led the team with a 25% TPRR and six end-zone targets against those coverages while also logging 1.7 YPRR.

Deebo Samuel o59.5 receiving yards

Samuel has gone over his line in four of his last eight games. â€‹â€‹Since Week 17, Green Bay has skewed two high heavy (fourth-highest rate, 62.9%). Since Week 11, Samuel has been the 49ers' preferred option against two high with a 27.6% target share, 2.47 YPRR, and a 38.6% first-read share. All of those marks lead the team. Samuel should spearhead the San Francisco passing attack this week.

George Kittle o52.5 receiving yards

Since Week 17, Green Bay has skewed two high heavy (fourth-highest rate, 62.9%). Since Week 11, against two high, Kittle has ranked second on the team with an 18.4% target share, third in YPRR (1.92), and third in first-read share (19.3%). Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Kittle has finished with more than 52.5 receiving yards in eight of his last 10 games.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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