Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC North (2022)
Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we've assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick 'em.
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| Team | Expected Points For | Expected Points Allowed | Pythagorean Win Total | Vegas Win Total |
| Baltimore Ravens | 413 | 365.5 | 9.7 | 9.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 403.5 | 384.5 | 9.0 | 9.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 390.25 | 379.25 | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 344.75 | 397.25 | 7.1 | 7.5 |
Baltimore Ravens
- Vegas is very bullish on Baltimore's defense this season. After Baltimore allowed 392 points last season (the 14th most), they're now projected to allow the fewest in the AFC and the 2nd fewest in the entire league. The defense unit is mostly unchanged, with the most significant addition being safety Marcus Williams.
- On the other hand, the Ravens are projected to score 25 more points than they scored last season. Given the major offensive injuries the Ravens had last season, scoring just 25 more points feels conservative. When (mostly) healthy in 2020, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens scored 468 points, the 7th most.
- Baltimore and Cincinnati are +170 to win the division; Baltimore has a slight edge in Pythagorean wins at 9.66.
Bet: Baltimore is the best bet to win the AFC North.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Since 2000, the team that lost the Super Bowl has gone on to win an average of 9 games and miss the playoffs 50% of the time. This seems to be on par with the Pythagorean expectation of 8.95 wins. That said, you can get Cincincatti to miss the playoffs at +118.
- Either way, Vegas' projections have the Bengals touting a very average offense, totaling 401.5 points, the 17th most. This is 56.5 points fewer than the Bengals scored in 2021; only two other teams are expected to regress more: the Cowboys and the Patriots.
- Cincinnati is expected to allow the 11th fewest at 384.5, after allowing the 15th most in 2021.
Bet: These projections expect Joe Burrow's offense to regress, and I do too. Based on the value and historical trends, I'd lean Cincinnati to miss the playoffs at +118.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- On paper, the Steelers are one of the biggest question marks this season. With Mike Tomlin, the team hasn't finished with a losing record - even when starting Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges for 15 weeks.
- Pittsburgh's win total sits at 7.5, with early spreads and lines projecting them to finish with 7.2 - definitely below .500. Vegas is giving Pittsburgh no love, only being favored in 5 of 17 games.
- So what gives? The offense, led by one of Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, or Kenny Pickett, is projected to score 353 points, the 3rd fewest in the AFC. Somehow, this is only 10 points more than the Steelers scored in 2021 with noodle-arm Big Ben.
- On defense, the Steelers are led by DPOY TJ Watt. Projections have this unit allowing 399 points, one more than they allowed last season and the 7th most in the AFC.
Bet: There's very little value on any futures bet for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I'll take the over, given my faith in Mike Tomlin.
Cleveland Browns
- It's tough to gauge the Browns in 2022. Through weeks 1-6, the Browns are projected to score 22.8 points per game, and once Deshaun Watson (presumably) returns, the Browns are expected to score 23.0 points per game. Surely, Watson is an upgrade over Brisset? For reference, in 2021, the Browns averaged 20.5 points per game.
- The defensive unit remains mostly unchanged, allowing 8 points more (379.25) total than in 2021 (371).
- There's no denying the talent of this unit on either side of the ball, but the Browns are a team who have historically struggled despite talent. If Deshaun Watson returns to his 2020 form after his 6-game suspension, if Amari Cooper can return to an elite number 1, and if the defense remains a solid unit, the Browns will, without a doubt, crush their 9.5 win total.
Bet: Until then, I don't want to tie up money on a bunch of "ifs." Avoid until there is more resolution.
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