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Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: NFC North (2022)

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Using Vegas totals and spreads, we can estimate the final score of each NFL game to project the number of points each team will score on offense and allow on defense. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. In the instance that a game spread is listed as a pick ’em, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog.

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Team Expected Points For Expected Points Allowed Pythagorean Win Total Vegas Win Total
Green Bay Packers 446.25 368.75 10.4 11.0
Minnesota Vikings 411.5 390.5 9.0 9.0
Detroit Lions 360.5 421.5 6.9 6.5
Chicago Bears 343 407.5 6.8 6.5

 

Green Bay Packers

  • Back-to-Back MVP Aaron Rodgers helped his team finish the 2021 season top 10 in points for (450). Despite the loss of Davante Adams, early Vegas projections don’t have Green Bay falling behind all that much in 2022. Green Bay is expected to score 446.25 points, just 3.75 points fewer and top 5 in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers will find a new number one in this offense.
  • The Packers have one of the best defensive backfields in football and one of the best defensive units they’ve had in a long time. It’s why the Packers are projected to allow the 4th fewest points in 2022, 368.75.

Bet: There is no future here too bold for the Packers. This team should win the division easily so -165 is not too steep for the division, nor is +1200 to win the Super Bowl. This team will be a contender until the very end.

Minnesota Vikings

  • Often, we get fantasy, and real football confused. There’s no doubt that the duo of RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson could be the best in the league, but that doesn’t mean this team is poised for greatness.
  • Many suggest the addition of former LA Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell could envigorate this team. Still, the Vikings are projected for 411.5 points this season - 13.5 fewer than they scored last season.
  • The defense added former Packer Za’Darius Smith and is expected to take a step forward this season. The Vikings are projected to allow 390.5 points this season, 35.5 fewer than they allowed last season.
  • Ultimately, this puts Minnesota with a Pythagorean win total of 9 wins - right on target of their 9-win total line.
  • I’ll leave you with this: Since 2011, twelve first-year head coaches have joined a team who finished with eight or more wins in the previous season. These coaches have never finished the season with more wins than in the previous season.
  • It’s also true that Kirk Cousins has only had one season with more than nine wins.

Bet: It’s contrarian, but I’ll take the Vikings under nine wins.

Chicago Bears

  • Despite having a 6.5 win total, the Bears are favored in only two games next season: their home games against the Texans and the Lions. As if that isn’t bad enough, projections have the Bears scoring just 32 more points next season, less than two more points per game.
  • The Bears will need everything to go right to the top of that 6.5-game mark. During the off-season, the Bears lost three-time All-Pro Khalil Mack, Pro-Bowler Allen Robinson, Danny Trevathan, and Tarik Cohen - among others. Meanwhile, Justin Fields’ supporting cast consists of Equanimeous St. Brown and Byron Pringle - two receivers who failed to make an impact with their future HOF quarterbacks.

Bet: Even with a Pythagorean win total of 6.8, I lean under 6.5 wins.

Detroit Lions

  • De’Andre Swift is someone I’m very excited to watch in 2022. Like the Bears, the Lions aren’t expected to make any big steps forward on offense, as they’re expected to score 35.5 points more than they did last season.
  • Unfortunately, the Lions aren’t expected to get much better on defense either. After allowing the 2nd most points in 2021, the Lions are expected to allow 467 points, the 4th most.

Bet: The Lions have a Pythagorean win total of 6.9, which bodes well for over 6.5 wins, but there isn’t enough value to consider taking it. I’ll stay away.

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