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Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: NFC West (2022)

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Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick ’em.

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Team Expected Points For Expected Points Allowed Pythagorean Win Total Vegas Win Total
Los Angeles Rams 448 392 9.8 10.5
San Francisco 49ers 415 362 9.9 10.0
Arizona Cardinals 418.75 418.25 8.5 8.5
Seattle Seahawks 341.5 415.5 6.6 5.5

 

Los Angeles Rams

  • The reigning Super Bowl champs are likely still a top 5 team in the league. Their Pythagorean Win total puts them just outside the top 5, sitting behind the Bills, Buccaneers, Packers, Chiefs, and the 49ers. More on the 9ers in a second.
  • Los Angeles is still expected to be elite at scoring points. The team put up 460 points in 2021 and is now projected to score 448, which is top 5. As long as the Matthew Stafford/Cooper Kupp connection is alive and well in 2022, there’s no reason this unit can’t score among the top 5 in the league.
  • Projections have the Rams being average on defense in 2022, much like they were in 2021. The team allowed the 18th most points and is now expected to allow the 15th most.

Bet: I think it’s likely this team still wins the division, and I’d be inclined to take it at +125 if I didn’t think there was better value on the 49ers. Given that the Rams have the 2nd hardest strength of schedule and a Pythagorean win total just under their total win line, I’ll stay away from betting anything other than the Rams to win the division, but there’s very little value.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Right now, the 49ers are favored in 13 games, which doesn’t include the two pick ’ems against Kansas City and Tampa Bay at home in San Francisco. This is two more wins than the Rams, despite the 49ers being projected to score 30 fewer points. The 49ers’ Pythagorean win total is 9.86, which is not only the best in the entire NFC West but also the top 5 across the league.
  • It seems odd, given that Trey Lance hasn’t yet had a real opportunity to start.
  • Defensively, this unit is poised to be the best in football. The 49ers are projected to allow the fewest points in the league, 362, after allowing 365 last season, the 9th fewest.

Bet: Given the high expectations from Vegas in the form of being favorites and allowing such few points, I think there is good value on San Francisco to win the division at +200. If (like me) you think the Rams will win the division and don’t want to take the risk, the 49ers to win more than 9.5 games feels great too.

Arizona Cardinals

  • The Cardinals are one of two teams projected to score more than 400 points while still being favored in 8 or fewer games (the other is the Bengals). On paper, The Cardinals’ finish with o8.5 wins at plus money feels like a bargain. Murray looked like a legitimate MVP contender with the Cardinals starting last season 7-0.
  • Unfortunately, football is not played on paper. The Cardinals are playing four games against the AFC West, twice against the Rams, and a week 16 game against Tampa Bay.

Bet: 8.5 games is an entirely reasonable line and one that the Pythagorean Expectation leans over on. Given that it’s at plus odds, it feels like good value.

Seattle Seahawks

  • The Seahawks are expected to be a bottom-of-the-barrel team in 2021 and an absolute rebuild mode. Despite scoring 395 points last season (the 16th most, a very average number), Seattle is expected to score 341 points in 2022. This may not seem like a big difference, but the difference of -53.5 points is the 4th largest difference of any NFL team.
  • The team is expected to take a large step back on defense - allowing another 49.5 points. This difference is the 5th largest.

Bet: Despite a Pythagorean win total of 6.5 points, I don’t think there is a chance Seattle wins even seven games. I’ll take under six wins where available.

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