Top NFL Player Props: Week 17 (2021)
Happy New Year, everyone! Let’s start 2022 on a profitable note.
With COVID-19 continuing to wreak havoc with NFL rosters, there was a limited menu of player prop options on DraftKings as of Friday afternoon. However, a handful of bets stood out.
Here are my favorite player props for Week 17.
- Last week’s bets: 6-2
- Season record: 50-37
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Matthew Stafford OVER 287.5 passing yards
The Rams face the Ravens and their injury-ravaged defensive backfield Sunday in Baltimore. Ravens CB Marcus Peters tore his ACL days before the season opener. Ace CB Marlon Humphrey went on IR with a pectoral injury in early December. CB Anthony Averett broke a rib last week and might not play on Sunday. Last week, the Bengals’ Joe Burrow blowtorched the Ravens for 525 passing yards. Last week, Stafford played poorly against the Vikings, but he’s averaging 289.3 passing yards a game this season. He’s thrown for 288 or more yards in eight of 15 games this season, and he hasn’t seen a matchup this good all year. A warm, dry forecast for Baltimore should provide cooperative passing conditions.
Ryan Tannehill UNDER 223.5 passing yards
Tannehill has failed to hit this number in his last four starts and six of his previous seven. Although A.J. Brown missed some of those games with a chest injury, Tannehill has averaged a modest 235.6 passing yards in games Brown has played this year. The Titans have run the ball on 48% of their offensive plays this season, and they’ve been no less run-heavy since losing RB Derrick Henry to a foot injury. Tannehill will be facing a tough Miami pass defense that ranks sixth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and is allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt.
Sam Darnold UNDER 196.5 passing yards
This one almost seems too easy. Darnold averaged 297.3 passing yards in Weeks 1-4, but then the wheels came off. In the six games he’s played since he’s completed 51.0% of his throws and averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Darnold has failed to hit this number in four of his last five starts. Although Darnold has been named the starter for the Panthers’ Week 17 game against the Saints, Cam Newton may play some snaps for the Panthers, too, particularly if Darnold struggles. The New Orleans pass defense is no joke. The Saints rank fifth in opponent passer rating and seventh in DVOA against the pass.
Cooper Kupp OVER 107.5 receiving yards
This was the total for Kupp last week, too. We recommended the over, and Kupp hit it. No surprise there. He’s cleared this number in each of his previous four games, in eight of his last 10, and 10 of 15 games this season. As noted in the Matthew Stafford write-up above, the Ravens are dealing with myriad injuries to their cornerbacks. They gave up 525 passing yards to the Bengals last week. Tavon Young, Baltimore’s 5-foot-9, 185-pound slot corner, is no match for Kupp, who’s averaging 115.6 receiving yards per game this season.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 61.6 receiving yards
This is a strangely low number for a receiver as good as Lamb. Maybe it’s because Lamb has averaged 62.3 receiving yards in the six games since Cowboys WR Michael Gallup returned from a calf injury. That probably has less to do with Gallup’s return than with the slump that QB Dak Prescott had been enduring, but Dak seemed to snap out of it last week with a 330-yard, four-touchdown evisceration of Washington. On Sunday, the Cowboys will face an Arizona defense that lost CB Robert Alford to a pectoral injury a few weeks ago and could be without CB Marco Wilson (shoulder) this week. Lamb is averaging 71.9 yards on the year and is a solid bet to hit the over on this total.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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