Top NFL Player Props: Week 8 (2021)
After last week's limited slate with only 13 games, a 15-game slate for Week 8 looks like an all-you-can-eat smorgasbord. Things went well In Week 7, save for a losing over bet on receiving yardage for the ham-handed Robby Anderson and a too-cute over bet on receiving yardage for 49ers TE Ross Dwelley in a game where foul weather wreaked havoc on passing production.
There are a lot of tasty player props this week. Grab a knife and fork, and let's dig in …
- Last week's bets: 5-2
- Season record: 19-8
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Michael Pittman OVER 61.5 receiving yards
Pittman has topped this number in four of the last six weeks. He'll be facing a Titans defense that's giving up 273.6 passing yards per game, and 77.7% of the receiving yardage allowed by the Titans is going to wide receivers - the highest percentage in the league. That works out to about 213 receiving yards per game for opposing receivers. And Pittman only has to get about 29% of what the Titans have been giving up to opposing receivers every week? Yes, please.
Matthew Stafford UNDER 290.5 passing yards
Stafford has beaten this number in four of his seven games this season, and it seems as if his opponent this week, the Texans, would offer little resistance. But since giving up 322 passing yards to Trevor Lawrence in Week 1 and 304 yards to Sam Darnold in Week 3, the Texans have held opposing quarterbacks below 291 yards in four consecutive games. Josh Allen threw for 248 yards against the Texans, and Kyler Murray threw for 261 yards against them. Houston also has the biggest run-funnel defense in the league, with opponents running the ball on 49% of their offensive snaps. This number looks way too tall even for a passer as good as Stafford.
Robert Woods UNDER 64.5 receiving yards
See the Matthew Stafford comment above for the basic reasoning behind this play. Then add the fact that Woods has only reached 65 receiving yards in 2 of 7 games this season.
Deebo Samuel OVER 69.5 receiving yards
This one feels like stealing. Deebo is averaging 108 receiving yards and has topped this number in six of his eight games. He has a commanding 34.1% target share this season. George Kittle is going to miss at least one more game with a calf injury, and poor Brandon Aiyuk can't seem to do anything right this season. Deebo faces the Bears, and 74% of the receiving yardage Chicago has allowed this season has gone to wide receivers - the second-highest percentage in the league.
Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 253.3 passing yards
Roethlisberger has failed to hit this number in each of his last three games, and it's hard to see him getting there in what figures to be a hard-hitting, slow-paced game against a divisional rival. Pittsburgh ranks 20th in offensive pace, Cleveland 30th. The Browns are giving up 215.1 passing yards per game. The forecast in Cleveland calls for 15 to 25 mph winds on Sunday, and anything in the upper end of that range could have at least a minor impact on passing.
Kenneth Gainwell OVER 31.5 rushing yards
The Eagles-Lions game should be fertile ground for overs on player props since these are two of the fastest-paced teams in the league. The Eagles rank second in offensive pace, the Lions sixth. Miles Sanders is out for the Eagles, leaving the backfield to Gainwell and Boston Scott. It's possible Gainwell remains in the passing-down role and Scott slides into Sanders' early-down role, but that seems counterintuitive since Gainwell clearly outranks Scott, who was barely seeing the field before Sanders got hurt. In other words, Gainwell should be a good bet for double-digit carries. The Lions have a run-funnel defense, with opponents running against the Lions 48% of the time. This is a low bar for Gainwell to clear. Also, as of Friday afternoon, DraftKings patrons were getting -110 odds on this bet rather than the usual -115 for a yardage prop.
Robby Anderson OVER 4.5 receptions
I'm getting right back on the horse that threw me. One of my two losing props last week was Anderson over 45.5 receiving yards against the Giants. In last week's column, I acknowledged Anderson's inefficiency and his recent spate of drops, but I figured target volume would win the day. "If he were to see nine targets in this one," I wrote, "Anderson would only need to average 5.1 yards per target to make his quota." Well, he got exactly nine targets … and had three catches for 14 yards. Anderson has averaged 9.5 targets over his last four games. The Panthers are still without RB Christian McCaffrey, No. 3 receiver Terrace Marshall is out with a concussion, and pass-catching TE Dan Arnold was traded away weeks ago. Anderson and D.J. Moore should continue to dominate targets for the Panthers, who have a favorable passing-game matchup against the Falcons this week. As of Friday, DraftKings was offering -105 odds on this bet, providing additional value.
Tom Brady UNDER 306.5 passing yards
In three games last season (including a playoff game), Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen seemed to have Brady's number. Brady averaged just 215.7 passing yards over those three games and only 6.0 yards per pass attempt. The Buccaneers will be without WR Antonio Brown (ankle) for another game. The Saints are allowing 250.7 passing yards per game, and they're the slowest-paced team in the league, which is going to hold down the number of total plays.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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