Top NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bets
The 2024-25 NFL regular season is back, which means we’re diving into NFL player props ahead of Sunday’s jam-packed 13-game Week 1 slate. This is the first article in this series, so make sure to tune in every Saturday to get prepped ahead of kickoff on Sundays. For Week 1, I’ve got five player props across various NFL player prop markets to wager.
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NFL Week 1 Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
James Conner O 55.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
The Arizona Cardinals are garnering some hype ahead of Week 1 based on how they finished 2023 and made the addition of top rookie wideout, Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals travel to Buffalo in Week 1 to face a Bills defense that got gashed on the ground a year ago, allowing the third-highest YPC average at 4.6.
Insert James Conner into this equation. Conner recorded at least 56 rushing yards in nine of 13 games played last season. We’ve already heard Cardinals OC Drew Petzing state that Conner is the bellcow in their backfield and it tracks, since he did record 26 and 27 carries in back-to-back games during Week 17 and Week 18.
56 rushing yards isn’t much to ask for from Conner, so let’s take advantage of this betting line and stake a unit on over 55.5 rushing yards against a porous Buffalo run defense on Sunday.
Tyreek Hill Any Time TD Scorer (-115)
I couldn’t resist the any time TD Scorer market on FanDuel in Week 1. A matchup between two Florida opponents, Miami vs. Jacksonville, should produce plenty of points and a myriad of touchdowns. Who else would we want to stake our money in this market than Dolphins’ star wideout, Tyreek Hill.
Hill was a touchdown machine in 2023, scoring 13 touchdowns in 16 games, while playing only five games without recording a touchdown reception. Jacksonville’s pass defense surrendered 6.2 net yards per attempt in 2023 and 27 touchdowns through the air, which ranked eighth and seventh-highest in both metrics.
Expect Hill to receive anywhere from 10-13 targets against the Jaguars in Week 1 and get Miami on the scoreboard early with a touchdown, cashing us out on this -115 ATD Scorer wager.
Aaron Jones O 54.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Minnesota’s backfield will feature RB Aaron Jones as RB1 against the New York Giants on Sunday. QB Sam Darnold is under center for the Vikings and he’ll likely lean on Jones, especially against a Giants defense that struggled to contain the run in 2023.
New York allowed 4.7 YPC and 24 rushing touchdowns last season, both bottom-five metrics. The Giants also surrendered 2,251 rushing yards, fourth-highest in the NFL. Yes, new DC Shane Bowen is calling the plays for New York’s defense in 2024, and several moves were made to shore up the front-seven, but it may take some time to piece it all together.
Jones’ rushing yards prop sits at 54.5. Last year in Green Bay, injuries plagued him, but he wound up finishing the season with three consecutive games of at lest 111 rushing yards on 20 carries or more. Minnesota’s offensive line is good and with a mediocre quarterback under center, Jones could wind up with 15-20 carries to grind clock and pick up key first downs.
Let’s stake another unit on Jones’ O 54.5 rushing yards player prop.
Drake London O 63.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Drake London has to be excited about QB Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball in 2024. London has made some spectacular plays with underwhelming quarterback play in the past two seasons. Now, he’ll have one of the league’s most accurate throwers targeting him all over the field.
A Week 1 matchup at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers could produce big results for London. Pittsburgh finished inside the bottom half of the league in passing yards, net passing yards per attempt, and receiving touchdowns allowed in 2023. The defensive backs are talented but young and there should be enough explosive plays with Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts to allow London to run routes with a high-success rate, allowing Cousins to target him for chunk plays throughout their matchup.
London had five games with 64 or more receiving yards in five of 16 games played in 2023, despite playing with a much lower-tier quarterback in a different offense. Third year prospects typically break out, so with London, we could see massive production through the air in Week 1. Let’s back the 6-4 Falcons wideout to wind up with over 63.5 receiving yards against the Steelers.
Baker Mayfield O 245.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Tampa Bay awarded Baker Mayfield a huge three-year, $110 million contract extension this offseason. Mayfield proves his doubters wrong in 2023 and led the Buccaneers into a division title and an NFC Wild Card win over Philadelphia. He’s now playing without former OC Dave Canales, which could have a big impact, but there’s still a lot of continuity and talent on Tampa Bay’s roster.
Washington’s pass defense was atrocious in 2023 and it may be slightly better in Week 1 under new defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn, but it’s going to take a lot of reps to improve this unit from a year ago. The Commanders gave up a league-worst 39 passing touchdowns, 7.0 net yards per pass attempt, and over 4,400 passing yards, all ranked 32nd in 2023.
Mayfield threw for 246 or more passing yards in nine of 17 regular season games a year ago, finishing with exactly 246 in two of these outings. He’s playing at home with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still on the roster, while facing one of the league’s worst pass defenses. This feels like a great pick to wrap up our Week 1 NFL player props, so let’s back Mayfield to go over 245.5 passing yards against the Commanders.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.