Top NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (2024)
The NFL Week 11 slate has several marquee matchups on tap as the playoff race begins to heat up. Kansas City vs. Buffalo, Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati vs. the Los Angeles Chargers are the games to circle, although there’s plenty of value elsewhere on Sunday’s board.
My Top NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets finished 1-2. Malik Nabers recorded six receptions, falling just short of over 6.5 receptions during the Giants’ overtime loss to Carolina in Germany. Sam Darnold threw multiple interceptions during an ugly 12-7 road win against Jacksonville, never coming close to cashing over 1.5 passing touchdowns, but we did hit on Najee Harris over 15.5 rush attempts, recording 21 carries during the Steelers’ 28-27 road win over Washington.
I’ve got three NFL player props to place ahead of Sunday's Week 11 slate. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL free bets and weekly analysis.
NFL Week 11 Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jared Goff O 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120)
Detroit’s miraculous comeback win over Houston on Sunday Night Football saw Lions QB Jared Goff overcome throwing five interceptions en route to a 26-23 win. Goff draws a great matchup against Jacksonville’s secondary at home in Week 11, facing a Jaguars pass defense allowing the third-most passing yards and fourth-most passing touchdowns in the league.
Goff has thrown for two or more touchdowns in six of nine games for Detroit, including last week against Houston. He’s hit over 1.5 passing touchdowns in six of his last seven games as well, so at -120 odds, we’re going to hammer Goff to stay hot and bounce back with a dominant showing against Jacksonville, finishing with two or more passing touchdowns at Ford Field on Sunday.
Jameis Winston O 239.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Revenge game narratives are fun and we’ve got a good one with Jameis Winston leading Cleveland into the Caesars Superdome in Week 11. The Saints have allowed over 2,400 passing yards in 2024, and Winston has thrown for 334 yards and 235 yards in two starts against the Ravens and the Chargers.
The Chargers’ pass defense is very good, while the Ravens are more comparable to New Orleans’ secondary. Winston should feast against a depleted Saints pass defense that no longer rosters CB Marshon Lattimore. Factor in Winston’s return to New Orleans, plus the Browns’ urgency to get a third win, and he should have no issue sailing over 239.5 passing yards on Sunday against his former team.
Jonathan Taylor O 17.5 Rush Attempts (-138)
Jonathan Taylor remains the focal point of the Colts’ offense. Indianapolis has lost three consecutive games, so they need to end their slump against the Jets on Sunday. Taylor has recorded 18 or more carries in four of the Colts’ last five games, finishing with 21-114 despite falling behind early in a 10-point loss to Buffalo.
We’re laying a bit of juice with this prop, however, the Jets’ run defense is a great matchup to exploit. New York is allowing the seventh-most rushing yards and struggled to make tackles during a blowout loss to Arizona in Week 10. Expect Colts head coach Shane Steichen to lean into the rushing attack to mitigate interceptions from QB Joe Flacco to remain competitive against a porous Jets run defense, leading to Taylor finishing with over 17.5 rush attempts at MetLife Stadium.
BettingPros Podcast
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.