Top NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (2024)
The Week 16 NFL slate has several divisional matchups and plenty of playoff implications, with only three weeks remaining in the 2024-25 regular season.
Three games will be played before 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, but there are still 11 afternoon games to bet on and enjoy during the holidays. Notable matchups include the Philadelphia Eagles against the Washington Commanders, the Minnesota Vikings at the Seattle Seahawks, and the San Francisco 49ers against the Miami Dolphins.
I ran it back with my NFL Week 15 Player Prop Bets, going 3-0 and sweeping the board for the second consecutive Sunday, improving to 6-0 over the past two weeks. Let’s go for the trifecta sweep on Sunday’s loaded Week 16 NFL slate and bet three more NFL player props, which will all be focused on running backs. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL free bets and weekly analysis.
NFL Week 16 Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chase Brown O 27.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Cincinnati’s RB1, Chase Brown, lands a favorable matchup against Cleveland’s defense on Sunday. The Bengals need to win out to have a chance to clinch a playoff seed in the AFC, so expect Brown to be leveraged heavily in the passing game.
Last week, the Bengals fed Brown 25 carries, his second-highest mark of the year, but Brown only finished with 16 receiving yards. Expect Joe Burrow to target Brown more heavily against a vulnerable Cleveland pass defense. He only recorded two receptions for nine receiving yards in their first matchup back in October but prior to Week 15, Brown had logged 28 or more receiving yards in five consecutive matchups.
Brown coasted over this number against the Raiders, Ravens, Chargers, and Cowboys, who also have similar difficulty containing running backs in the pass game. Let’s bet a unit on Brown to finish with over 27.5 receiving yards in a game that the Bengals have to win to preserve their thin playoff aspirations.
Bijan Robinson O 18.5 Rush Attempts (-122)
The Atlanta Falcons are 7-7 and still in the thick of the NFC playoff hunt, but despite beating Las Vegas, they’ve made the decision to start rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. and bench a struggling Kirk Cousins. It’ll be interesting to see how Atlanta handles Penix’s workload in a plus-matchup against the Giants’ bottom-tier run and pass defense.
Ultimately, I believe that Falcons star RB Bijan Robinson will continue to handle a huge workload against the league’s second-worst run defense, allowing 4.9 YPC. Robinson has recorded 19 or more rush attempts in five of Atlanta’s last six games, excluding their 38-6 blowout loss to Denver, when the game script went south early on.
At -122 odds, I’m more than willing to bet a unit on Robinson to earn another 19-plus carries to help Penix, the No. 8 overall draft pick, during his first career start in the NFL. Let’s bet Robinson at over 18.5 carries against the porous New York Giants run defense at home, especially since they are only half a game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to regain the lead in the NFC South.
Jahmyr Gibbs O 91.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
David Montgomery’s injury during Detroit’s 48-42 loss to Buffalo in Week 15 means second-year running back Jahmyr Gibbs should have at least 20-25 touches against Chicago on the road this Sunday. The Lions’ versatile running back recorded 87 rushing yards on only nine carries against the Bears on Thanksgiving, so if he earns 15 or more carries, expect Gibbs to crush over 91.5 rushing yards against the Bears’ struggling run defense.
Chicago has allowed over 100 rushing yards in 12 of 14 games played this season, including eight consecutive matchups, so Gibbs should be able to gain chunk plays running behind one of the league’s best run-blocking offensive line units. We’ve only seen Gibbs go over 91.5 rushing yards twice in 2024, going back-to-back against Tennessee and Minnesota, but that’s primarily due to Montgomery earning 12-20 carries.
During the first game against Chicago, Montgomery finished with 21 carries, compared to under 10 carries for Gibbs. Expect the Lions to feed Gibbs early and often in a plus-matchup that Detroit now carries additional pressure to win to hold off the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings from grabbing the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Let’s bet one more unit on Gibbs to go over 91.5 rushing yards with an extensive workload at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.