Top NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (2024)

We’re back with another edition of NFL Week 4 player prop bets to wager. It’s a small sample size, but we’re beginning to see each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

My NFL Week 3 player props went 0-3, as D’Onta Foreman and Rashid Shaheed’s rushing yards and receiving yards never stood a chance to hit the over, while George Pickens finished with 57 receiving yards, going over 49.5 receiving yards for the second time in 2024, taking advantage of seven targets in a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers secondary.

I’ve found three Week 4 NFL player props to wager and build our bankroll back ahead of Sunday’s slate. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.

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NFL Week 3 Player Props

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

D.J. Moore O 4.5 Receptions (-128)

The Chicago Bears host the Los Angeles Rams as -3 favorites on the point spread during Sunday’s early afternoon window. No. 1 overall draft pick, rookie QB Caleb Williams, threw 52 times in a Week 3 road loss to Indianapolis, finishing with 363 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in what was undoubtedly his best game in the NFL.

D.J. Moore is the primary target in Chicago’s offense. Moore is drawing a 23.7 percent target share and has seen 10 targets in two consecutive weeks, turning those opportunities into six receptions and eight receptions. In fact, Moore has yet to go under 4.5 receptions this season, and he’s facing a Rams pass defense that allows a league-worst 9.0 net yards per pass attempt.

Let’s stake a unit on Moore to extend his streak in a plus-matchup and finish Sunday’s game with over 4.5 receptions at -128 odds.

Aaron Jones O 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Aaron Jones and the undefeated Minnesota Vikings head to Lambeau Field to face Jones’ former team, the Green Bay Packers. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has fed Jones 14, nine, and 19 carries since Week 1, and in both games with double-digit carries, Jones has finished with 94 rushing yards and 102 rushing yards.

This is game script dependent, since Minnesota falling into a deficit or playing a close game may result in less carries. However, in a revenge game, I like Jones to stay heavily involved and wind up with at least 60 rushing yards against a bottom-ten run defense in the league. Green Bay is surrendering 4.7 yards per attempt and inflicts the most damage against the pass, so Sam Darnold may be mitigated in favor of a heavy dose of Jones on Sunday afternoon.

Let’s stake one more unit on Jones’ over 59.5 rushing yards on the road in a revenge game narrative in a divisional matchup on Sunday afternoon.

Kyler Murray O 232.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Finally, we’re heading to the Desert to back Arizona QB Kyler Murray going over 232.5 passing yards at -110 odds. Murray has only reached 233+ passing yards in one game this season against a porous Rams’ pass defense, going 17-21 for 266 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2.

He came close last week against Detroit with 207 passing yards, but Washington’s pass defense is bottom-two in the NFL for net passing yards per attempt (7.7), forcing no interceptions and allowing nine passing touchdowns through three games. Murray will be without star tight end, Trey McBride, but his receiving options, led by No. 4 overall rookie wideout, Marvin Harrison Jr., should be able to get plenty of production through the air against a vulnerable Washington secondary.

One final unit can be wagered on Murray to go over 232.5 passing yards at -110 odds in a matchup against his former head coach and current Commanders OC, Kliff Kingsbury.