Top NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday 1/5
It’s a busy night across the NHL with 10 games on Thursday’s betting menu. And with the halfway point of the regular season approaching, we’re starting to get a stronger idea of who’s for real.
Let’s jump right in with my favorite plays for today’s slate:
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Top NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday 1/5
Arizona Coyotes (+130) at Philadelphia Flyers (-150), Total: 6
Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
Who’s ready to do some dumpster diving? OK, maybe that was a bit harsh. The Coyotes and Flyers were expected to be battling each other in the Connor Bedard Tank Sweepstakes, but both teams have played significantly above expectations. The Yotes have a .431 point percentage, while Philly has earned a point in 46% of their contests.
Arizona enters having lost two in a row to Tampa Bay and Florida, while the Flyers have won three in a row against San Jose, Los Angeles and Anaheim. But these respective streaks aren’t completely indicative of how these teams have played.
Arizona has a 51.16 goals-for percentage and a 50.25 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has a 47.73 GF% and a 44.15 xGF%. In other words, the analytics suggest that Arizona has performed better at 5-on-5 than Philadelphia, who might be over-performing a bit. Whether you call it puck luck or regression, Philadelphia might be due for it. Arizona has also done a better job at generating and limiting high-danger scoring chances.
Karel Vejmelka is expected to be between the pipes for the Yotes, and he’ll battle Flyers netminder Carter Hart, who will make his first start since a concussion. Both of these goaltenders rank in the top seven in Goals Saved Above Expected, but Hart’s form had fallen off before his injury. Hart had surrendered at least three goals in four of his last five starts, excluding the game in which he got injured.
The Coyotes are a scrappy underdog who are playing above-average hockey. And with Vejmelka in net, I’ll take a stab at them as a short road dog.
The pick: Arizona +130
It’s also worth noting that Arizona will play Friday night against the lowly Blackhawks and could be worth fading on a back-to-back with Vejmelka unlikely to start two nights in a row.
Colorado Avalanche (-155) at Vancouver Canucks (+135), Total: 6.5
The defending champions are trying to stay afloat after getting drilled by the injury bug earlier in the season. They’ve been without captain Nathan MacKinnon as well as key contributors like Gabriel Landeskog, Bowen Byram, Josh Manson and Valeri Nichuskin for a portion of the season.
The good news is the Avs have survived and sit in fourth in the Central Division with 41 points. Even better news? MacKinnon returned to action just before the new year.
Despite all of this turmoil, Colorado has managed to play really good hockey. Their 57.7 Corsi For Percentage indicates that the Avalanche have dominated puck possession over their last 10 games. And while their goals for percentage is just 42.42, their expected goals for percentage is 52.94, a massive difference that suggests the Avalanche simply haven’t been getting the good results they’ve deserved.
Colorado’s lack of goal-scoring can be directly attributed to a 5.24 shooting percentage. In other words, the Avs are doing everything right except putting the puck in the net.
That could change against an erratic Vancouver team Thursday night. The Canucks have been below 50% in possession, expected goals for and chance generation metrics over their last 10 contests. Their three-game losing skid is entirely deserved.
To top it off, Vancouver’s goaltending situation is a disaster. Starter Thatcher Demko has been miserable and has been on IR. Backup Spencer Martin hasn’t been any better, with -11 Goals Saved Above Expected and an .883 save percentage. Vancouver could turn to career backup Collin Delia Thursday night, who’s been somewhat respectable in a small sample size.
Colorado will likely start Alexander Georgiev between the pipes to try and snap a four-game losing streak. While he hasn’t been prolific, Georgiev has 4.3 goals saved above expected in 27 appearances.
Back the Avs to break their losing skid.
The pick: Colorado -155
New York Rangers (-190) at Montreal Canadiens (+160), Total: 6
This is more of a flyer, but it might not be on the team you’d expect.
The Rangers have gone 7-2-1 in their last 10. Montreal has gone 1-8-1 and has massive issues on the blue line. However, the advanced metrics suggest these teams are closer than the results indicate during that stretch. Compare these key metrics:
- Corsi For %: New York 48.49, Montreal 44.39
- Expected Goals For %: New York 45.69, Montreal 38.15
- Scoring Chances For %: New York 43.65, Montreal 39.67
I’m not advocating Montreal as a quality team by any stretch, but the Habs haven’t been that far off from the Rangers and have the top-end scoring talent to steal a win at home. New York also won’t have their biggest difference maker, Igor Shesterkin, in net Thursday. Instead, Jaroslav Halak will take the goal with -1.9 goals saved above expected in 10 starts. The Canadiens will have a rare goaltending advantage over the Rangers with Jake Allen, who has posted 2.9 goals saved above expected.
The spot also favors Montreal, as they’ll try to snap a five-game skid against a New York team coming off a resounding 5-3 victory over the red-hot Carolina Hurricanes. And with a Saturday showdown against the New Jersey Devils on deck, the Rangers may be looking past this one.
This is not a bet for the faint of heart.
The pick: Canadiens +160
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts