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Top NHL Betting Picks & Predictions: Kraken vs. Predators (Thursday, 10/12)

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The opening week of the 2023-24 NHL season continues on Thursday as the Nashville Predators host the Seattle Kraken in a Western Conference tilt. Below, I walk through my favorite bet to make for this contest.

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Best Bets for Kraken vs. Predators

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Seattle Kraken (-110) vs. Nashville Predators (-110) | O/U 6 (-120/+100)

It was a tough opening night for each of these two clubs on Wednesday, as the Kraken lost 4-1 to the Las Vegas Knights while the Preds dropped the season’s opening game 5-3 to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

In terms of total goals scored, I like this meeting to go more like Seattle’s opening game. While there were eight goals scored in the Nashville game, it was a complete ref show, as nine total penalties were called with Tampa succeeding on the power play at a 40% clip.

Nashville’s penalty kill is much stronger than a 60% rate would suggest from that small sample size. Meanwhile, at 5-on-5, the Preds’ blue line played tremendously as they allowed a mere 1.43 expected goals (xGA).

Predators goaltender Juuse Saros also didn’t have his best stuff, but we should expect positive regression sooner rather than later for the perennial Vezina candidate that ranked first among all starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. However, Saros may not get a ton of goal support from this offense that generated just 2.77 expected goals (xGF) at 5-on-5.

That is a common theme from last season: Saros needing to play his best knowing that goal support is certainly not guaranteed from this lineup. Last year, Nashville finished 21st in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

Meanwhile, Seattle’s offense is a prime regression candidate this season. Last year, they finished first in GF/60 at 5-on-5 and first in finishing, despite ranking 20th in xGF/60 at even strength, a combination that is unsustainable in the long run.

The Kraken offense failed to get it going against Vegas in their season debut, scoring just once en route to their 4-1 loss. The blue line, however, held its own as it gave up 2.58 xGA at 5-on-5.

This should not be that shocking, given that the Kraken ranked sixth in the league last year in xGA/60 at even strength. Neither team plays at a blistering pace and given all the other aforementioned variables, I like the Under 6 here at plus-money.

Bet: Under 6 (+100)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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