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Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (1/5)

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The NHL’s first Friday night slate of 2024 is a bit underwhelming in both quantity and quality.

We’ve only got three games to dissect this first Friday of the year, with each game featuring a favorite listed at -170 or higher odds. But we can can’t control what the board gives us, what we can control is how we make the most of it. Here are breakdowns and betting action items for each of these three games.

Friday’s Best NHL Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2023-24 record: 15-5

Chicago Blackhawks (+340) at New Jersey Devils (-440) | O/U: 6.5 (-110/-110)

The Blackhawks are by far the worst team in the NHL right now. Yes, that includes the San Jose Sharks, who have achieved two 10-game losing streaks this year.

But at least San Jose is relatively healthy. The Blackhawks were already a bad roster entering the season, but now they barely have an NHL-caliber roster thanks to a slew of injuries to important depth players. The Hawks have been without Taylor Hall and Andreas Athanasiou for months. But most recently the team has lost top defenseman Seth Jones, as well as forwards Tyler Johnson, Joey Anderson, Taylor Raddysh and Anthony Beauvillier.

To put it in perspective, Chicago’s active roster accounts for $37 million in salary cap space, while the injured players make up more than $30 million of salary.

To top it off, Chicago is on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing 4-1 to the Rangers in a game that was more competitive than the final score would indicate. Chicago actually held the slight advantage in expected goals at 5-on-5.

Meanwhile, the Devils have found their form again after a rough stretch from late November to mid-December. New Jersey is 6-3-1 in their past 10 games and ranks fifth in expected goals for percentage during that stretch.

While I’m high on New Jersey and have a future on them to win the Stanley Cup, they tend to play down to their competition in this spot. Their goaltending is also capable of killing them any given night, which makes me weary of laying more than $4 to win $1.

What I will recommend as a lean is the over in this game. The Blackhawks will turn to Arvid Soderbloom in net tonight, and Soderbloom ranks 77th out of 85 qualifying goaltenders in goals saved above expected. Meanwhile, New Jersey will either start Vitek Vanecek, who ranks 84th in GSAE, or Nico Daws, who is unproven having started just two games this year.

Frankly, the Devils could cover most of this total on their own, but I do expect the Hawks to chip in with a couple of goals against New Jersey’s suspect goaltending. I also think Connor Bedard ends his two-game pointless streak tonight.

Lean: Over 6.5 goals, Connor Bedard over 0.5 points (-160)

Carolina Hurricanes (-170) at Washington Capitals (+142) | O/U: 6.0 (-110/-110)

Speaking of preseason Cup contenders who have found their form recently, look no further than the Hurricanes, another team I have a Cup future on. The Canes are 6-1-3 in their past 10 games and rank 10th in expected goals for percentage during that stretch.

The Capitals are 4-4-2 over their past 10, but might be fortunate to have gotten points in six of their past 10. The Caps have skated to the league’s second-lowest expected goals for percentage over that 10-game stretch, above only the aforementioned Blackhawks.

I love this Carolina team, but I’m not quite confident enough to lay this number with them on the road against a Capitals team that can ugly things up and keep it close, just like they did in a 2-1 victory at Carolina in December. Similar to New Jersey, I don’t trust goalie Pyotr Kochetkov as a big favorite, especially on the road.

That being said, Washington doesn’t have enough depth to yield much confidence against a superior foe. This is a pass.

The pick: Pass

Winnipeg Jets (-192) at Anaheim Ducks (+160) | O/U: 6.0 (-105/-110)

The Jets have been rolling lately, going 8-0-2 over their past 10 games while ranking fourth in expected goals for percentage. However, while the Jets have been playing wonderfully, they are actually due for a bit of regression. Winnipeg’s goals for percentage at 5-on-5 over their past 10 games is 73.68%, with a shooting percentage over 10% and a 95.3 save percentage. Those numbers are incredible, but most likely aren’t sustainable.

The Ducks have been less impressive, ranking 23rd in xGF% at 5-on-5. But there are a couple of reasons I like Anaheim in this spot.

First of all, Winnipeg will play the second leg of a California back-to-back, after surviving against the lowly Sharks 2-1 Thursday night in a game the Jets had to work harder to win than they had probably hoped. Anaheim will also have the advantage in net. John Gibson should make the start for the Ducks, and he ranks 18th in GSAE. On the flip side, we’ll see Winnipeg backup Laurent Brossoit between the pipes after starter Connor Hellebuyck played Thursday in San Jose. This matters significantly because while Brossoit has been respectable this year (0.8 goals saved above expected), Hellebuyck is leading the league in that stat.

Ultimately, I like the spot for Anaheim to pull the upset on home ice.

The pick: Anaheim +160

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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