Navigate

Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/17)

by |

After a busy work week across the NHL, the league starts the weekend with a trio of games to dissect, including a matinee skate in Sweden. Let this serve as a light appetizer for a massive Black Friday slate next week.

Here’s a breakdown of each of the three NHL games dropping the puck on Friday.

Friday’s Best NHL Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | Record: 3-1

Toronto Maple Leafs (-170) at Detroit Red Wings (+142) | O/U 6.5 (-125/+105)

The rest advantage goes to the Maple Leafs here. Toronto has been off since last Saturday, while the Red Wings will play their second consecutive night in Stockholm after a 5-4 overtime loss to the Ottawa Senators Thursday.

These teams have both played nearly identical hockey over their past 10 games. They’re both in below-average form when it comes to scoring chances, high danger chances and expected goals for. What’s even more fascinating is that both teams appear to be getting fortunate results based on the analytics. Despite matching 23-21 goal differentials at 5-on-5 play, both the Wings and Leafs have expected goal percentages below 50%.

We’ll also have an interesting matchup in net. Ilya Samsonov is the likely starter for Toronto and will face off against Alex Lyon.

Samsonov has been among the league’s worst goalies to start the year with a -3.1 goals saved above expected. Formerly of the Florida Panthers, Lyon will make the spot start Friday afternoon after James Reimer started Thursday night’s game. Lyon has yet to make a start this season, but he’s coming off a strong year in Florida. Lyon ranked 20th among goaltenders last year with 7.5 goals saved above expected in only 15 appearances.

Toronto is just a tough team to trust as a big favorite, especially with their current form. Detroit has plenty of scoring talent to keep up with Toronto’s top gunners, and the goaltending matchup feels like a wash if not a slight edge for the Leafs.

While betting on an afternoon hockey game is a great way to start the weekend, I won’t force one here. If anything, I’d lean toward a high-scoring affair.

The pick: Lean over 6.5

Buffalo Sabres (+150) at Winnipeg Jets (-180) | O/U 6.5 (-120/+100)

The Jets have been in strong form as of late, ranking ninth in the NHL in expected goals for percentage over their past 10 outings. However, Winnipeg has been a bit fortunate as of late. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, the Jets have scored about five more goals than expected and given up approximately three goals fewer than they should’ve.

Now, expected performance at 5-on-5 isn’t the be-all and end-all when handicapping hockey. But it’s one of the first places I look to see whether a team that’s in good form is truly deserving of the results. And while the results are a bit inflated, Winnipeg’s play as of late has earned them some puck luck.

The question is whether Buffalo can take advantage of some possible regression coming for Winnipeg. And the answer is: probably not. The Sabres have lost three of four, and that’s despite a 25-21 goal differential at 5-on-5. Buffalo has the third-best shooting percentage in the league over their last 10 games, yet they’re still struggling to string together wins.

We’ll likely see Eric Comrie in net for the Sabres, while it’s uncertain who will be between the pipes for Winnipeg. The Jets host Arizona on Saturday night, which means we could see Laurent Brossoit between the pipes after Connor Hellebuyck started Tuesday night against New Jersey.

Buffalo has the scoring upside to pull this upset. But the Jets appear to be a team that takes care of business against the league’s middle and lower classes, while struggling to punch up to the league’s best. This feels like another situation in which Winnipeg takes care of business, but I’d need a slightly better number to get involved.

The pick: Pass

Florida Panthers (-180) at Anaheim Ducks (+150), O/U 6.5 (-130/+110)

This matchup pits two teams who appear to be headed in different directions. Despite a loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday night, the Panthers are in strong form. Meanwhile, Anaheim has started to fade after an impressive start to the season.

And unlike some of the other teams we’ve discussed today, these two teams are performing up to the analytical expectations. Florida has goals for percentage of 53.85% at 5-on-5 and an expected goals percentage of 53.17%. Meanwhile, Anaheim’s goals for percentage is 42.86% and its expected goals for percentage is 42.72%.

One thing Anaheim should have is a goaltending advantage. That’s because Sergei Bobrovsky started Thursday night, which means Anthony Stolarz will most likely take the crease in Anaheim. Stolarz has appeared in only three games this year, but has posted a goals saved above expected number of -1.1 goals. Meanwhile, the Ducks should go with John Gibson in net, who ranks sixth in the league in goals saved above expectation.

The Ducks have proven they can play up to the league’s top teams, as it has wins already this year over Vegas, Carolina and Boston. And Anaheim should have a significant edge in net, plus a rest advantage with Florida playing its second leg of a back-to-back California stretch. However, it’s hard to ignore the form Florida is in right now, so I’ll drink some juice and take the Ducks to keep the game within two goals.

The pick: Ducks +1.5 (-170) or Ducks ML (+150)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App