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Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/1)

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The first NHL slate of December is a light one, with just two games for our entertainment this Friday night following a jam-packed Thursday night slate.

Last week, we were nearly perfect, with the Florida Panthers being our lone setback on a 3-1 Black Friday. We’ll try to keep the momentum going even with a much shorter slate.

Here are breakdowns and picks for Friday night’s pair of contests.

2023 record: 7-2

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook 

Friday’s Best NHL Bets

Ottawa Senators (-148) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+124), O/U 7

Our slate begins with a matchup between two teams that have admittedly been hard to read all season. The Blue Jackets have won three of five after a nine-game losing streak and recently took down the Boston Bruins earlier in the week. Meanwhile, the Senators have been a rather streaky team and arrive in Columbus on the heels of a poor showing at home against the Islanders and Panthers.

While neither team has played tremendously lately, it’s actually Columbus who is in better form over its last 10 games, according to the analytics. The Jackets hold slight advantages in the possession and shot creation metrics while posting an expected goals for percentage of 47.51, compared to Ottawa’s xGF% of 42.42%, per NaturalStatTrick.

The Blue Jackets have also been better at creating and limiting scoring chances and high-danger chances, which matters against a Senators team that has plenty of goal-scoring punch.

It’ll be interesting to see who the Sens put in goal, as both Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg have been below average this season. Korpisalo has been closer to average in his first year with the team, with a goals saved above expected mark hovering around dead-even. Forsberg has been far worse, with a -6.1 GSAE that ranks him 72nd among 76 goalies this year.

My guess is we’ll see Korpisalo between the pipes against his former team and Columbus netminder Elvis Merzlikins, who has an even GSAE rating.

These are two teams I haven’t been all that excited to back often this season. But in games like this, I tend to gravitate toward the team who’s in better form.

The pick: Columbus +124

San Jose Sharks (+360) at New Jersey Devils (-470), O/U 6.5

So, who wants to lay $50 to win $10 on the Devils? Certainly not me!

The return of Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier to the lineup has been a massive (and expected) boost for the Devils, who have won three in a row over Eastern Conference foes.

Now, the lowly Sharks come to town with both teams traveling on a back-to-back. The Devils beat the Flyers 4-3 in overtime, while the Sharks fell quietly to the Bruins, 3-0.

The Devils are an exceptionally talented team when at full strength, but what’s held them back is their goaltending. The Devils rank 29th in save percentage this season, with the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid struggling often.

But despite their poor goaltending, the Devils have done a great job of controlling play and generating chances. New Jersey ranks sixth in the league in expected goals for percentage over their last 10 games at even strength and managed to still control play even with Hughes and Hischier missing time.

There’s no reason to believe New Jersey won’t dominate zone possession time against a San Jose team that’s spent much of the season swimming in their own defensive zone. Granted, the Sharks have been better as of late. But they still rank second-to-last in Corsi For %, a stat that gauges possession and shot attempt differential at even strength. They also rank dead-last in xGF% over their last 10 and have given up the fourth-most scoring chances during that span.

The only thing that could keep San Jose in the game is the goaltending matchup, although I tend to think it’s more even than the metrics suggest. Vanecek will get the start Friday night and ranks 71st in GSAE, while Kaapo Kahkonen will take the net for San Jose and has posted a slightly above-average GSAE in nine starts.

While I can’t justify backing New Jersey at this astronomical price, I do think we’ll see plenty of scoring. The Devils should be able to generate ample chances against San Jose’s porous defense, while the Sharks could sneak a couple of goals past a struggling Vanecek.

The pick: Over 6.5 goals

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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