Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/22)

by Matt Barbato |
Dec 22, 2023

Friday is the second-to-last day before the NHL goes on break for the holidays from Christmas Eve until the day after Christmas. And with a massive Saturday slate on the books, we only have a four-pack to unload on the Friday before Christmas.

That said, all four games offer intrigue from a betting perspective. Without further ado, letâ€™s break down each of our four games for Friday night.

Friday's Best NHL Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2023 record: 12-5

Philadelphia Flyers (+114) @ Detroit Red Wings (-135), O/U: 6 (-122/+102)

Fridayâ€™s slate opens with a rematch, as the Flyers and Red Wings will square off for the second time in six days, this time at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. The Flyers came away with a 1-0 shutout in that game on the backs of a 34-save shutout by Samuel Ersson, who has undergone quite the performance turnaround this month.

Looking back at the last matchup between these two teams, itâ€™s fair to say the Flyers were a bit fortunate to come out with a 1-0 win. The game was practically a coin flip, with Detroit holding a slight advantage in 5-on-5 expected goals for. Unsurprisingly, the difference maker was Ersson, who stopped 2.17 goals above expected. Essentially, the Flyers played a good game and won another tight one because Ersson stood on his head.

The Flyers enter this rematch in a tough spot, having played Thursday night in Nashville, Tenn. Philly lost that game 4-2 and got the result they deserved, as they were outscored 2.0-1.26 in the expected goals at 5-on-5 battle. The Flyers also likely wonâ€™t have Ersson going Friday in Detroit after he played Thursday night against the Preds.

We should see Carter Hart between the pipes for Philadelphia. Hart is the better of Philadelphiaâ€™s goaltending tandem, but he could enter this game rusty since he hasnâ€™t played since Dec. 9.

Detroit should come into this game plenty motivated to snap a four-game losing skid. And while Philadelphia has been the better team at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games, the Flyers seem due to come down to earth, a process that mightâ€™ve started Thursday night in Nashville.

Detroitâ€™s a tough team to trust as a favorite, and itâ€™s hard going against this hard-nosed Philly bunch off a loss. Still, the spot screams Detroit.

Bet: Detroit ML (-135)

Edmonton Oilers (+124) @ New York Rangers (-148), O/U: 6.5 (-115/-105)

The game of the night takes place at Madison Square Garden, where the star-studded Edmonton Oilers will look to continue their winning ways against the Metropolitan-leading Rangers.

Not much needs to be said about the star power in this game on both sides. So, letâ€™s start with the spot, which once again favors the home team here.

Edmonton will play the second leg of a back-to-back after thumping the New Jersey Devils 6-3 Thursday night, snapping a three-game losing streak in the process. Meanwhile, the Rangers have had two days off in between tonight and an impressive win at Toronto.

Edmonton is also in better form at 5-on-5, posting a league-high 60.7 expected goals for percentage, compared to New Yorkâ€™s xGF of 50.67%. Edmonton also holds significant advantages in driving play, dominating possession and generating and limiting opposing scoring chances.

So, Edmonton as an underdog has to be the play, right? Well, that brings me to the goaltending.

With Calvin Pickard starting Thursday in New Jersey, weâ€™ll almost certainly see Stuart Skinner between the pipes for Edmonton against Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin. Frankly, you probably couldnâ€™t have a wider gap in a goaltending matchup. Skinner has a -12 goals saved above expectation, which is by far the worst mark in the league. Meanwhile, Shesterkin ranks 11th with +7.6 GSAE.

Your decision on this game hinges upon whether you think Skinner can pull a rabbit out of his hat and be the better goalie for one night. The recommendation is Edmonton, but know that this could get ugly quickly if Skinner starts poorly.

Lean: Edmonton ML (+124)

Boston Bruins (-125) @ Winnipeg Jets (+105), O/U: 5.5 (-120/+100)

While this game might not have the same star power as Oilers-Rangers, it could be just as good. Both Boston and Winnipeg are among the top teams in their respective conferences, and both are in nearly identical form right now, according to the analytics.

Corsi For %: Winnipeg 50.46, Boston 50.31
Expected Goals For %: Winnipeg 49.73, Boston 49.25
High-Danger Chances For %: Winnipeg 50.54, Boston 49.47

What Winnipeg has done recently is even more impressive when you consider that top goal scorer Kyle Connor has been out of the lineup and will miss up to two months with a knee injury. But itâ€™s worth mentioning that while both teams are winning games, they arenâ€™t exactly dominating their opposition either.

We should get a tremendous matchup between the pipes, with Jeremy Swayman taking on Connor Hellebuyck. Swayman ranks second in goals saved above expected, while Hellebuyck isnâ€™t far behind in eighth. That explains the low total.

This is a game Iâ€™ll likely watch from the sidelines. Both teams are nearly dead-evenly matched and have been getting better results than expected. I tend to sit out these types of games, especially with two rock-solid goalies in the crease. If anything, the under might be the strongest play.

Bet: Pass

Montreal Canadiens (-105) @ Chicago Blackhawks (-115), O/U: 6.5 (+100/-120)

Friday night could be historic, as it could be the first time all season the lowly Blackhawks close as favorites. Thatâ€™s for good reason, as the only good things about these Blackhawks are Connor Bedard and the occasional elite goaltending performance from Petr Mrazek. Otherwise, this roster stinks from top-to-bottom.

Making matters worse is that Chicagoâ€™s dealing with a rash of injuries, specifically on the blue line. Top defenseman Seth Jones is on IR. Ascending young D-man Alex Vlasic will likely miss another game. The hope is that youngster Kevin Korchinski and Jarren Tinordi can both return to action Friday night. Still, neither playerâ€™s return moves the needle a ton.

So, why is Chicago a short home favorite then? The spot. Montreal is playing the second leg of a back-to-back after losing to Minnesota in overtime Thursday night, while Chicago starts a back-t0-back stretch before the holiday break.

While the spot certainly matters here, the Blackhawks are still dead last in expected goals at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games. The Hawks are often getting buried in their own end, struggling mightily to prevent serious scoring chances while hardly creating any of their own.

Chicagoâ€™s blueprint has been to pray for puck luck and hope Mrazek can save them. Thatâ€™s exactly what happened Tuesday night when the Hawks pulled a massive upset over the Colorado Avalanche. Chicago won the game 3-2, but MoneyPuck.comâ€™s postgame win expectancy said they had only a 29.4% chance of winning. The Avalanche won the expected goals battle 2.08-1.79 at 5-on-5, but Chicago wound up actually outscoring the Avs 2-0 at even strength. Ultimately, Mrazekâ€™s 2.26 goals saved above expected made the difference.

By backing Chicago, youâ€™re essentially asking for all of this to happen again. Granted, Montreal is an inferior team to Colorado, coming in on a back-to-back. But the Blackhawks should not be favorites here, with everything considered. And with Jake Allen between the pipes for Montreal, the goaltending matchup is pretty even.

Take the Habs.

Bet: Montreal ML (-105)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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