Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (2/16)
While this is Valentine’s weekend, the NHL isn’t giving much love to Friday night, putting just one game on the board before a loaded weekend slate.
So with just one game to dissect, let’s get straight to it.
Friday's Best NHL Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2023-204 record: 16-10
Carolina Hurricanes (-218) at Arizona Coyotes (+180), O/U: 6 (=110/-110)
This is an intriguing spot for both sides. The Hurricanes arrive in Arizona for the first leg of a back-to-back, with the second leg being a matchup against the defending Stanley Cup champions. Meanwhile, Arizona is desperately looking to snap a seven-game losing skid that included a 3-1 loss at Carolina in late January.
The Hurricanes are doing their typical act of dominating possession and scoring chances at 5-on-5 play, yet failing to finish. The Canes have posted a sub-50% goals for percentage at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games, yet have an expected goals for percentage of nearly 57%. To no surprise, a 6.22% shooting percentage is the primary culprit, along with unreliable goaltending.
Interestingly, Arizona has posted identical goals for and expected goals for percentages: 46.77%. This essentially proves that while the Yotes aren’t a bottom-feeder, they’re rightfully falling out of the playoff race.
I’m guessing we’ll see backup Spencer Martin in net Friday night as Carolina saves starter Pyotr Kochetkov for Saturday against Vegas. Martin hasn’t taken the crease since before the All-Star Break and has actually only made one start for Carolina since being acquired after the team lost backup Antti Raanta to injury. Martin has posted -3.2 goals saved above expected in 14 starts this year but stopped 26-of-28 shots in a 3-2 win over the Bruins in his Carolina debut in January.
Meanwhile, Arizona will likely start backup Karel Vejmelka with starter Connor Ingram mysteriously sidelined. Vejmelka is actually one spot lower than Martin in terms of GSAE, posting a -3.5 mark.
The Canes thoroughly dominated the Coyotes in the first matchup between these teams, winning the scoring chance battle 37-12 and the high-danger chance battle 21-4 at 5-on-5. The expected goals margin was 3.67-0.92, and the actual margin at 5-on-5 was 2-1.
The spot and Carolina’s general uncertainty in net on a nightly basis has me staying away from the side at these steep odds. However, one angle I am interested in is a goalie prop. In the first game between these teams, Raanta only faced 11 shots on goal and if there’s one thing about this game I trust, it’s that Carolina will absolutely dominate possession again, limiting Arizona’s scoring chances.
This will have me looking out for an under on saves for whoever’s in net for the Canes. Carolina has yet to reveal a goaltender, so keep an eye out for a save prop once that’s announced. I also don’t mind a play on Arizona Under 2.5 goals. A Hurricanes under saves and Arizona Under 2.5 goals could be a decent same-game parlay.
The Pick: Under Total Saves for Carolina’s starting goalie (once announced),