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Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (2/23)

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We’ve got another shallow Friday night slate in the NHL, with a trio of games to get us into the weekend. Two of the three games feature some awfully heavy favorites, making matters tougher.

Is there any value on the board this Friday night? Let’s break down the slate.

Friday's Best NHL Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2023-204 record: 16-11

Buffalo Sabres (-142) @ Columbus Blue Jackets (+120), O/U: 6.5 (-125/+105) 

This game is the exception to our big favorites on Friday. Still, it involves a Buffalo Sabres team that I have difficulty backing as a decent road favorite.

I think these odds are disrespecting the Blue Jackets a bit. While Buffalo is up eight points in the standings, the advanced analytics depict a picture of two teams that are awfully similar over their last 10 games. Just take a look at these numbers:

  • Corsi For %: Buffalo 50.05%, Columbus 50.79%
  • Expected Goals For %: Buffalo 49.04%, Columbus 49.04%
  • Scoring Chances For %: Buffalo 50.9%, Columbus 49.18%

The point I’m making is these teams have been much closer in form than the odds suggest. However, backing Columbus here requires taking a risk on an uncertain goaltending situation. In their last game, Jackets goalie Daniil Tarasov had to exit the game momentarily after taking a stick to the face. He ultimately returned after Elvis Merzlikins gave up two goals on two shots in relief.

Neither Blue Jackets goaltender is overly reliable, and the Sabres probably have the advantage in-net if Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen takes the crease for Buffalo. “UPL” has been in great form as of late and now ranks 25th in goals saved above expected.

Ultimately, I do think the Blue Jackets are a bit undervalued here, but given the uncertainty in-net, this is merely a lean.

The pick: Lean Blue Jackets (+120)

Winnipeg Jets (-270) @ Chicago Blackhawks (+220), O/U: 5.5 (-110) 

Even with Connor Bedard, the Blackhawks still remain rather dismal. The Hawks are 1-8-1 over their last 10 contests, with the lone win coming in a game against the Ottawa Senators in which goalie Petr Mrazek stopped 40-of-42 shots. Bedard also put up a goal and an assist in the win.

The formula for Chicago to win games is simple: Bedard needs to carry the water and pray for tremendous goaltending. The Blackhawks actually accomplished this goal the last time the Jets visited the United Center. Mrazek stopped 37 of 38 shots, and the Blackhawks eked out a 2-1 upset.

Mrazek should be in the net for the Hawks in this game after backup Arvid Soderblom took the crease against the Flyers Wednesday night. His presence gives Chicago a semblance of hope, but he can only do so much to overcome a roster that gets caved in on a nightly basis. The Blackhawks have an expected goals percentage barely above 41%, which is actually better than the team’s actual goals for percentage of 27%.

The Jets haven’t been playing as well as they were before the All-Star Game, but they’ve still posted an expected goals for percentage above 50%. The Jets can’t afford to drop points against inferior opponents if they’re to stick around in a tightly contested Central Division race.

This is one of the rare moments where I’ll endorse backing a massive favorite. If you’re looking to reduce the juice, I don’t mind a play on Winnipeg to win in regulation.

The pick: Winnipeg (-270) or Winnipeg (-160) To Win in Regulation

Minnesota Wild (+154) @ Edmonton Oilers (-185) O/U: 6.5 (-130/+110) 

The Oilers have cooled off a bit since their torrid winning streak was snapped right after the All-Star break. But they’re still playing at a high level and have posted the third-best expected goals for percentage in the league over their last 10 games. Interestingly, the Minnesota Wild aren’t far behind, posting the league’s fifth-best mark over that span.

The problem for Minnesota is between the pipes, where both Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury have been capable of derailing the team on any given night. We’ll likely see Gustavsson get the nod Friday after Fleury allowed five goals on 29 shots against Winnipeg the last time out. Even against Oilers projected starter Calvin Pickard, the Wild could be at a disadvantage in-net.

While I would lean slightly toward the Wild as sizable road dogs, Edmonton’s top-end talent against a shaky goaltender scares me off.

The pick: Pass, Lean Wild (+154)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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