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Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/1)

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The calendar has turned to March, which means the NHL trade deadline is just a week away and the home stretch of the regular season is just around the corner.

The first Friday night slate in March offers up a three-pack of games involving only a couple of playoff contenders, as well as a couple of massive favorites.

Let’s jump right into the Friday night slate.

Friday's Best NHL Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2023-204 record: 17-11

Arizona Coyotes (+160) @ Ottawa Senators (-192) | O/U 6.5 (-118/-102) 

The Coyotes are in a total free fall. After hanging around in the Western Conference wild-card race, the Yotes have compiled a 14-game losing streak that has completely derailed what looked to be a hopeful 2023-24 campaign.

Friday’s game against Ottawa is also the second leg of a back-to-back, as Arizona fell to Toronto, 4-2, Thursday night. I’d completely understand if you want no part of this Coyotes team. Still, I actually think there’s a case to be made in their favor.

First of all, the underlying metrics suggest Arizona hasn’t been nearly as bad as its losing skid would indicate. In fact, the Coyotes rank 12th in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals-for percentage over their last 10 games, something I was even surprised to see, given the current state of affairs.

Just take last night’s game against Toronto, during which the Yotes only lost the expected goals battle 2.57-2.42 but were actually outscored 3-1 at 5-on-5. The point is, while actual results are what pay the bills, it’s worth noting that Arizona’s form isn’t entirely reflective of the results.

The main culprit for Arizona’s bad run has been goaltending, as the team has posted the worst save percentage in the league over their last 10 games. However, Ottawa’s goaltending isn’t much better, ranking fifth-worst in save percentage during that same stretch.

The Senators tend to be a team that plays up and down to their opponent, making them practically impossible to back as a big favorite. And while I’m not thrilled to see Karel Vejmelka get the net for Arizona, Senators goalie Anton Forsberg isn’t much better and makes the goaltending matchup a wash.

The Coyotes have been analytically better than the Senators in generating chances and controlling play. Arizona’s biggest weakness is practically neutralized in this matchup. Tonight will be the night the losing streak comes to a close.

The pick: Arizona (+160)

Philadelphia Flyers (-120) @ Washington Capitals (+100) | O/U 6 (-110/-110)

The line feels about right in this one, as both the Flyers and Capitals are dealing with some injury issues. The status of Flyers top scorer Travis Konecny remains unknown after he didn’t appear at practice Thursday. Defenseman Jamie Drysdale also will miss Friday’s game.

The injuries are mounting for Washington as well, who could be without T.J. Oshie, Nic Dowd and Tom Wilson Friday night.

The Flyers are the superior team here and have posted the seventh-best XGF% at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games. But with the Flyers heading home Saturday night for a date with the Senators, we could see backup Cal Petersen take the crease, which gives me a bit of pause about making the Flyers anything more than a lean.

Wait to see who’s in-net, but the Flyers should be able to get by the short-handed Caps even without Konecny.

The pick: Lean Flyers (-120)

New Jersey Devils (-258) @ Anaheim Ducks (+210) | O/U 6.5 (-120/+100)

Both the Devils and Ducks are coming off victories over the lowly San Jose Sharks. But it’s the Devils who desperately need two points to stick around in the competitive Eastern Conference wild-card race.

From a side perspective, I have no real interest in either team. The Devils are far superior, ranking fourth in XGF%, and should take care of business against a lousy Anaheim bunch. But at -258, those odds are just a bit too lofty for a Devils team I don’t fully trust, especially in-net.

That leads me to my recommended play on the over. Nico Daws has been fine in-net for New Jersey since taking over as the de facto starter, but he’s vulnerable against a Ducks team with some scoring punch. Conversely, we should see Anaheim backup Lukas Dostal in-net. Dostal ranks 80th in goals saved above expected and could get lit up by a talented group of Devils scorers.

The pick: Over 6.5 (-120)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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