Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/12)
Today is the final Friday of the NHL regular season, and with plenty of playoff spots still undecided, it should make for a thrilling finish to the campaign.
While we don’t have a matchup between two teams vying for playoff positioning, we do have some in action. Here’s a break down the final Friday slate:
Friday's Best NHL Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2023-2024 record: 22-14
Carolina Hurricanes (-198) @ St. Louis Blues (+164), O/U: 6 (+102/-122)
I suppose I lied when I said there wasn’t a matchup between two playoff hopefuls. The Blues are clinging onto their playoff lives, trailing the Vegas Golden Knights by three points with three games to play. A win over the Hurricanes would go a long way in applying more pressure on the defending champs. But after claiming victories over the Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks in their last two contests, the Blues will have their hands full with a much more formidable opponent.
Carolina is a viable Stanley Cup contender and ranks third in expected goals for over their last 10 games. The Canes are deeper, but I’d prefer to stay away at these lofty odds. Carolina’s occasional inability to finish their bevy of scoring chances, combined with unreliable goaltending, makes them a tough team to back as massive favorites.
The Pick: Pass
Nashville Predators (-258) @ Chicago Blackhawks (+210), O/U: 6 (-102/-118)
The Predators will be a dangerous wild-card team. Nashville has quietly played some great hockey lately, ranking fourth in expected goals for percentage over their last 10 games.
Still, if Nashville had a fatal flaw, it would be between the pipes. While Juuse Saros is widely regarded as a top goaltender, he hasn’t played like one this year, ranking 61st in goals saved above expected. Saros killed Nashville in their last game against Winnipeg, a game in which Nashville out-shot Winnipeg 48-22 but lost 4-3 in overtime.
It wouldn’t stun me if we saw Kevin Lankinen in-net for Nashville against his former team. Lankinen might also be the better choice, as he ranks 40th in GSAE.
Chicago may not be playing out the string, but they’re an awful team. Outside of Connor Bedard and Phillip Kurashev, the team has no scoring upside, and the Hawks often drown in their own end. Chicago’s best chance at a victory is getting a couple of timely goals while Petr Mrazek stands on his head in-net.
Nashville has done a tremendous job controlling play and generating scoring chances. However, they’ve struggled to put those chances in the back of the net, with a shooting percentage just above 6% at 5-on-5. This feels like a game where Nashville should dominate if they can finish with more regularity.
The Pick: Predators in Regulation (-160)
Arizona Coyotes (+235) @ Edmonton Oilers (-290), O/U: 6.5 (-112/-108)
I have no play on this one. The Oilers could be cautious with star Connor McDavid, who was a game-time decision their last time out. I also have no interest in betting on this Arizona team again this season.
The Pick: Pass
Calgary Flames (-148) @ Anaheim Ducks (+124), O/U: 6 (-115/-105)
The metrics suggest Calgary is far more formidable than the results indicate. However, I have no interest in a game between two teams with nothing to play for.
The Pick: Pass
Minnesota Wild (+142) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-175), O/U: 6 (+102/-122)
Vegas needs a wake-up, as they’ve lost three straight to keep the Blues alive in the race for the final wild-card spot. Even worse, Vegas has fallen three points behind both Nashville for the first wild card spot and Los Angeles for third place in the Pacific Division.
A matchup against the Wild and goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury could be a strong get-right spot. Fleury is the projected starter Friday night and enters the game ranked 82nd in goals saved above expected. Whether it’s Adin Hill or Logan Thompson in-net opposite Fleury, the Golden Knights will have the advantage there.
The advanced metrics don’t indicate much difference between these two squads. Vegas has an xGF% of 51.83% over their last 10 games at 5-on-5. Minnesota’s xGF% during that same span is 50.07%. However, I will bet on the Golden Knights, who are the superior team with far more motivation and better goaltending. Minnesota has picked up wins against Chicago and Ottawa in their last five but have been dominated by playoff squads like Colorado and Winnipeg during that stretch. This one could be all Vegas.
The Pick: Golden Knights ML (-175)
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