Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (Penguins vs. Capitals)
The opening week of the 2023-24 NHL season continues on Friday as the Washington Capitals host the Pittsburgh Penguins in a Metropolitan Division tilt. Below, I walk through my favorite bet to make for this contest.
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Best Bet for Penguins vs. Capitals
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Penguins (-120) vs. Washington Capitals (+100) | O/U 6.5 (-105/-115)
The Penguins suffered a massively disappointing loss in their season debut against the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday, a game they lost 4-2 after owning a two-goal advantage past the half-way mark. If I’m a Penguins fan, I’m not as much troubled about the result as I am troubled about the fact that the Blackhawks didn’t even look good – Pittsburgh just looked bad.
The bottom six of the forward group was practically non-existent while the blue line was allowing the young Hawks forwards to get looks on net as much as possible. At 5-on-5, Pittsburgh generated just 2.29 expected goals for (xGF).
Goaltender Tristan Jarry wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t great either as he performed exactly how you would expect him to given the looks he faced.
On the other side, the Washington Capitals make their season debut. Washington is a sneaky-deep team, and while I think it has a long road this season in terms of making the playoffs, we should expect them to at least be in the conversation.
Injuries really hampered the Caps last year, and now they are healthy outside of newly-acquired Max Pacioretty. While the lineup remains virtually identical (albeit healthier), the biggest change for Washington this season is behind the bench as Spencer Carbery is the new coach.
Big question mark in this department as this is his first stint as a HC in the NHL, but he was the AHL coach of the year in 2021.
Darcy Kuemper will get the start between the pipes for the Caps, and this should be another advantage for Washington in this contest. That is not to say that Jarry is bad or Kuemper is some Vezina-caliber netminder, but the latter finished last season higher in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
I give the edge to Kuemper, but even if you want to call the goaltending matchup a wash, Washington still boasts the stronger blue line and deeper offense. Pittsburgh is more top-heavy offensively, but is that enough to justify -120 on the road in Washington’s season debut after how the Pens looked against Chicago? I don’t think so.
Bet: Capitals ML (+100)
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- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions (Penguins vs. Capitals)
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.