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Top NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Thursday (1/4)

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After grinding some smaller NHL slates during the holidays, we’re being gifted a whopping 13 games to bet on Thursday night. The early playoff picture is beginning to sort itself out, with the Colorado Avalanche being valued by oddsmakers in NHL futures markets as the favorite to win the Stanley Cup at +750 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, we technically went one for four on NHL best bets, if we isolate the Edmonton Oilers’ puck line against San Jose. However, I recommended parlaying it with over 6.5 total goals, but the Oilers went into San Jose and won 5-0. Carolina and Montreal exchanged blows in a high-scoring affair that saw the Canadiens fail to cover the puck line, allowing two third-period goals to wind up losing 5-3 on the road. Lastly, we had money on over 6.5 total goals in the Vegas vs. Los Angeles matchup, which saw the Golden Knights win 3-2. Overall, it was a rough slate for our picks, as we went 0-3 officially, while we can consider 1-3 for those bettors who straight bet the Oilers puck line at -1.5.

This time around, we’re sweeping the slate with three locks to wager ahead of puck drops across the league on Thursday night. Make sure to follow Matt MacKay on Twitter to get more free plays and NHL best bets.

Thursday's NHL Best Bets

Columbus Blue Jackets (+160) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-194) | O/U 6.5 (+104/-128)

Two teams with much different styles of play will face off at the Wells Fargo Center on Thursday, as the Flyers are favorites hosting the Blue Jackets. Columbus gives up 3.67 goals per game, third-highest in the league, forcing their offense to try to keep them in games, which is why the Blue Jackets are 16th in goals scored per game, averaging 3.08 per contest. The Flyers rely on a physical style of play and have received good goaltending from Carter Hart, as they are eighth-best in goals allowed at 2.78 per game.

We need to hammer the goal total over in this game, as we don’t often see plus odds for over 6.5 total goals in Columbus’ games. Philadelphia and Columbus last played in November, with the Flyers hosting en route to a 5-2 win. Expect a similar outcome here in terms of goals scored, as Philadelphia has gone over 6.5 total goals in back-to-back games, surrendering nine goals during this two-game slump.

The Blue Jackets are among the best over teams in the league at 20-17-2, plus, Carter Hart’s current form has been porous, allowing five to six goals in two of his past three starts in the net for Philadelphia. Even better? Five of the Flyers’ last six games at home in prime time following a road loss have gone over the total goals line set. We’re staking a unit on over 6.5 total goals at +104 odds.

Bet: Over 6.5 Total Goals (+104)

Pittsburgh Penguins (+125) vs. Boston Bruins (-150) | O/U 5.5 (-134/+110)

One of the marquee games on Thursday’s slate sends Pittsburgh to Boston to face a Bruins team that has won four consecutive games. The Penguins just dropped a home game against Washington 4-3 after going on their own three-game winning streak, so this matchup should be quite interesting to watch play out. David Pastrnak has scored two goals in three of Boston’s last four home games, while Sidney Crosby is also sitting at 21 goals and 38 points through 36 games played this season.

Pittsburgh’s goaltending has been good this season, averaging 2.67 goals allowed per game. Boston’s goaltending has been marginally better though, allowing 2.56 goals per game, while the offense continues to surge, winning by two or more goals in every game during their four-game streak.

Pittsburgh’s last five games at TD Garden after a home loss have gone over the total goals line, plus, the Penguins have logged six total goals in four of their past five games. Once again, we’re staking a unit on over 5.5 total goals, which we don’t get too often for goal total lines, so let’s take advantage while -134 odds are available.

Bet: Over 5.5 Total Goals (-134)

Vancouver Canucks (-137) vs. St. Louis Blues (+114) | O/U 6.5 (-102/-120)

Oddsmakers are giving Vancouver smaller moneyline odds than expected, which could make Canucks bettors nervous. The Blues will host the Canucks on Thursday night, preparing for the most potent offense in the league, which averages 3.84 goals per game. Lately though, Vancouver’s defense and goaltending have been vulnerable, allowing three to four goals in four consecutive contests. St. Louis won five of six following the firing of their former head coach, but now, they find themselves in a two-game losing rut, dropping 2-1 against the Avalanche and 4-2 against Pittsburgh.

Instead of playing any of these main lines, we’re hitting the NHL player props market and investing in Blues’ forward Robert Thomas to continue his red-hot goal streak against the leaky goaltending of Thatcher Demko. Thomas has scored a goal in three of his past four games, and now, he’ll be able to take advantage of regression in the Canucks’ net in front of his home crowd.

The Blues are 4-2 straight up in their last six home games played, so while the moneyline is tempting at +114 odds, let’s have some fun and sprinkle half a unit on Thomas to score his 16th goal of the season at +200 odds, especially since he leads the Blues in goals scored by a three-goal margin.

Bet: Robert Thomas Anytime Goal Scorer (+200)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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