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Top NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Thursday (12/28)

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The NHL took a couple of nights off during this past holiday weekend, but now, games are back in full swing, with four matchups on tap for Thursday’s slate.

Our NHL picks from last Thursday went 2-1, as Buffalo routed Toronto 9-3, easily cashing over 6.5 total goals with a surprising win from the Sabres. Edmonton and New Jersey also logged nine total goals to cash over 6.5, but it was a two-leg parlay, also requiring the Oilers to cover the puck line at +1.5. Combined, this parlay was +121 odds and it cashed without much difficulty, as Edmonton won by three goals. The only miss came in the Carolina vs. Pittsburgh game, with the Hurricanes losing 2-1 in a shootout on the road to the Penguins, failing to cash as moneyline favorites at -134 odds.

Overall, it was a solid outing last week, and we’re going to replicate it again despite dealing with a smaller slate tonight. Make sure to follow Matt MacKay on Twitter to get more free plays and NHL best bets.

Thursday's NHL Best Bets

Carolina Hurricanes (-265) vs. Montreal Canadiens (+215) | O/U 6.5 (+104/-128)

Carolina hosts Montreal as a significant moneyline favorite at -265 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. It may look like the Hurricanes are a lock at these odds, but they’ve stumbled lately, losing four of their last six games outright. Montreal, with low expectations, have either won outright or covered the puck line as underdogs in seven consecutive outings.

Canadiens goaltender Cayden Primeau has been playing well and will get the start in the crease tonight, allowing two or fewer goals in three of his past four starts. Carolina only averages 3.29 goals per game, ranked 14th in the league, while also surrendering 3.14 goals per game, which is 17th amongst 32 NHL franchises. We’re investing a unit on the Canadiens’ puck line, getting -113 odds to cover +1.5 on the road. Yes, Carolina has won five straight in this series, but their current form leaves much to be desired, plus Montreal

Bet: Montreal +1.5 (-113)

Los Angeles Kings (-106) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-113) | O/U 6.5 (+104/-128)

Los Angeles and Vegas are both playing their second game in a back-to-back on Thursday night. The Golden Knights are slight moneyline favorites at home, as oddsmakers are valuing Vegas at -113 moneyline odds. Neither goaltender has yet to be confirmed, but Vegas is currently riding a slump, losing four in a row and five of their last six games outright.

The Kings are the total opposite, winning four of their last five games. Los Angeles has won by two or more goals in three of these victories, which makes sense, since they average 3.58 goals per game, third-highest in the league. Even more enticing, the Kings only surrender 2.32 goals per game on average, giving them a nice cushion in most matchups. Vegas expects to roll Jiri Patera out in goal tonight, who has allowed four or more goals in all three starts this season.

For some reason, we’re getting plus odds on over 6.5 total goals. It could be due to the Kings holding opponents to three or fewer goals in six straight games, but Vegas is loaded with goal scoring talent, countering their vulnerability in the net. We need to wager a unit on over 6.5 total goals at plus odds, since this value isn’t available very often in betting markets.

Bet: Over 6.5 Total Goals (+104)

San Jose Sharks (+310) vs. Edmonton Oilers (-400) | O/U 6.5 (-150/+124)

Finally, we wrap the slate up with a lopsided game on paper, as the Edmonton Oilers travel to the Shark Tank to face the San Jose Sharks during Thursday’s late puck drop. San Jose is +310 on their moneyline odds because they’ve lost six games in a row. However, the Sharks have covered the puck line in seven of their past eight games against opponents on a winning streak, which Edmonton is currently riding after securing back-to-back road wins against the Devils and Rangers.

It’s a step down in class for the Oilers, which is always scary to bet on. San Jose has won outright against some far superior opponents, so it’s not wild to wager on them to cover +1.5 at +140 odds. Yet, when we look at their defense, the Sharks are the worst team in the league in goals allowed per game, surrendering 4.06 on average. Edmonton, conversely, scores 3.45 goals per game, sixth-highest this season.

Shockingly, when these two teams played earlier this season in San Jose, the Sharks won 3-2. It was the only game in this head-to-head series across the last five matchups to go under 6.5 total goals, so expect a flurry of action on the ice from the Oilers tonight. Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner will start once again like he did back during their 3-2 loss, when he allowed three goals on just 18 shots against. Sharks goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen just surrendered five goals to Los Angeles last night, while giving up at least three goals in four of his past five starts in the net.

We don’t need to complicate this game. Let’s do what we did with the Oilers last week, and parlay their puck line odds, this time at -1.5, with over 6.5 total goals. Combined, these two lines become +153 odds on FanDuel, so let’s stake a unit on Edmonton to extend their winning streak and pour in goals on the road in a revenge game against the lowly Sharks on Thursday night.

Bet: Parlay – Edmonton Puck Line + Over 6.5 Total Goals (+153)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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