Top NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Thursday (2/22)

The NHL is back with a massive 11-game slate for us to enjoy on Thursday night! This means more than enough matchups for us to find good value in NHL betting markets. Oddsmakers have set current lines pretty tightly in either direction, with the majority of moneyline odds available at a fraction of the cost we’re accustomed to seeing. For instance, the Florida Panthers are on a five-game winning streak but are +100 on the moneyline on the road against Carolina. Meanwhile, the red-hot New York Rangers, winning eight straight games, find themselves as slight underdogs at -102 odds on the road against the New Jersey Devils.

Last week, we took a nose dive with our NHL best bets, going 0-3 on the slate. After going 3-0 the previous week, this was the exact opposite outcome. It’s important to recap, regardless of how well or poorly the picks performed. New Jersey scored an equalizer after giving up a short-handed goal to the Los Angeles Kings in the second period. Ultimately, the Devils ceded the go-ahead goal with under six minutes in the third period, losing 2-1 on home ice. Colorado and Tampa Bay were in a dogfight for the first two periods, entering the third period 2-2, but four goals from Tampa Bay ruined our chance of cashing under 6.5 total goals at plus odds. Finally, Artemi Panarin and the Rangers dismantled Montreal 7-4, but Panarin failed to light the lamp, recording three assists instead, while attempting only one shot on goal. Overall, it was a tough week and we’ve got the perfect slate to bounce back on tonight.

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Thursday's NHL Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Colorado Avalanche (-146) vs. Detroit Red Wings (+122) | O/U 6.5 (-134/+110)

One of the best bets to wager on Thursday’s crowded slate is investing in over 6.5 total goals between Colorado and Detroit. Both of these offenses are capable of scoring in bunches, with the Avs ranking first (3.68) and Red Wings at fifth (3.49) for most goals scored per game on average this season. Even better, we’re getting mediocre goaltending play in this matchup.

Alex Lyon is already confirmed as the starter and he hasn’t been sharp for Detroit lately, allowing three-plus goals in five consecutive starts. Alexandar Georgiev, who is expected to be in the crease for Colorado, is coming off of a solid showing against Vancouver, allowing one goal on 25 shots faced, but he’s susceptible to bad goaltending. We saw Georgiev surrender three to four goals in four consecutive starts prior to his improved performance against a winded Vancouver team playing the second leg of a back-to-back.

Each of Detroit’s last six games against Central Division teams has gone over the total goals line and we have numerous goal scoring talent on the ice facing streaky goaltenders who have been colder lately, so let’s invest a unit on over 6.5 total goals to be scored in this game.

Bet: Over 6.5 Total Goals (-134)

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New York Rangers (-102) vs. New Jersey Devils (-118) | O/U 6.5 (-102/-120)

The Hudson River Rivalry is back on Thursday night, with the New Jersey Devils playing host to the New York Rangers. The Rangers haven’t lost since coming out of the All-Star Weekend, winning eight consecutive games outright, with seven of these coming after the extended break. The most impressive win came during their Stadium Series win the other day against the New York Islanders, erasing a 4-1 lead and quickly scoring the game-winner off of Artemi Panarin’s stick 10 seconds into overtime.

The Devils have been a tough team to handicap all year. They are fresh off of a 6-2 road loss against Washington and it’s hard to know whether this was due to the Capitals improving, or simply always having the Devils number. Oddsmakers appear to think that it was the latter, laying points with the Devils as slight home favorites against the Rangers. Both teams are ninth and 11th in scoring average per game, with New Jersey slightly higher at 3.36 goals versus the Rangers at 3.34. The big difference, however, comes with goals allowed.

Nico Daws has played the best of any Devils goaltender this season, but he did surrender six goals on 26 shots against Washington in his last start. Conversely, Igor Shesterkin, a former Vezina Trophy winner, has been fully dialed in post-All-Star Weekend. Excluding the five goals allowed against the Islanders during an outdoor game, the Rangers’ netminder has allowed a combined four goals in three other starts, pitching a shutout against Calgary. This is the edge the Rangers hold, as their scoring depth is and finishing ability is just as strong as New Jersey’s offense. Daws is 3-2 since the All-Star Weekend as a starter, but Seattle, Nashville, and Philadelphia are a tier below compared to the Rangers’ roster.

The Rangers won at Prudential Center 5-3 back in November and I expect a similar result on Thursday. Let’s take the value with the Rangers and wager a full unit on their -102 moneyline odds to extend their win streak to nine games against a streaky Devils team with a weaker goaltender.

Bet: New York Rangers Moneyline (-102)

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New York Islanders (-105) vs. St. Louis Blues (-114) | O/U 6.5 (-102/-120)

The New York Islanders and St. Louis Blues have both been playing good puck lately. Now, they face off in St. Louis o Thursday night, with oddsmakers laying points with the Blues as slight home favorites. New York continues to be a Jekyll and Hyde team, while the Blues are 1-3 straight up in their last four games played.

Instead of trying to galaxy brain which team wins this matchup outright, we’re focusing on the goal total. Specifically the over. Semyon Varlamov is the Islanders’ backup goaltender and he’s already been confirmed. Varlamov has only logged three starts in the past two months for New York, allowing at least three goals in each appearance. Both offenses in this game are ranked 20th or lower in goals scored average, with the Islanders holding a slight edge at 2.98.

All three of the Blues’ previous home games have wound up going to at least six total goals, including two games clearing 6.5. The Islanders have also been pouring in goals, scoring 10 times in their last two games against the Rangers and Penguins. Jordan Binnington is the projected goaltender for St. Louis, which bodes well for over 6.5 to hit once again. Binnington has allowed three or more goals in his past three starts as well, just like Varlamov. Both teams are in playoff contention, so expect the flurry of activity in the offensive zone to continue on both sides. The point total has gone over in five of the Blues’ last six games at home against the Islanders, while also going over in four of New York’s last five games played.

We’re taking advantage of the value of -102 odds on over 6.5 total goals in a game that should see plenty of scoring chances between two teams making a playoff push. Plus, the goaltending on both sides is a bit suspect, which always helps when betting over 6.5 goals in an NHL game. Let’s stake a unit on the over to cash yet again in this matchup on the road in St. Louis on Thursday night.

Bet: Over 6.5 (-102)

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.