Top NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Thursday (4/11)
It’s been one of the most memorable NHL seasons in recent memory. With under a week remaining in the regular season, the final Wild Card seed in each conference remains up for grabs, wrapping up a highly entertaining regular season with high-stakes drama to clinch a Stanley Cup playoff berth. Let’s run through the remaining clinching scenarios before we dive into three best bets to wager during the final Thursday slate of the 2023-24 NHL regular season.
Washington ended its six-game losing skid against Detroit on Tuesday, which had massive playoff implications. Now, the Capitals occupy the final Wild Card seed in the Eastern Conference at 85 points, booting the Red Wings into a two-way tie with the Pittsburgh Penguins at 84 points. The Philadelphia Flyers surrendered nine goals in a rout against Montreal, showcasing why they’ve gone 1-6-3 in their last ten games, so they are all but mathematically eliminated. The New York Islanders beat the New York Rangers to extend their winning streak to five games, building a small cushion as the third playoff seed in the Eastern Conference.
In the Western Conference, it’s a bit less hectic, although the Los Angeles Kings, Vegas Golden Knights, and St. Louis Blues have yet to clinch or be eliminated. The Kings’ 3-1 loss to Anaheim on Tuesday puts the pressure on them to win out, as St. Louis has gone 6-2-2 in their last ten to inch closer to the final Wild Card seed. Vegas’ 5-1 road loss to Edmonton on Wednesday is significant, allowing the Blues to have a chance to win out and clinch over the reigning Stanley Cup champions.
Last week, our picks went 1-2. The Bruins beat the Hurricanes 4-1 on the road to narrowly hit under 5.5 total goals at -110 odds, which was a good start. Unfortunately, our wins ended there, as the Penguins beat the Capitals 4-1, leaving us hooked on over 5.5 total goals at -140 odds. Finally, the Los Angeles Kings never came close to scoring four goals, beating San Jose 2-1 after pouring in two first period goals, so we didn’t hit over 3.5 total team goals.
With these playoff-clinching scenarios in mind, we’ve found three high-value bets to place during Thursday’s 10-game slate. Make sure to follow Matt MacKay on Twitter for more free plays and NHL best bets as we prepare for a highly entertaining Stanley Cup Playoff schedule.
Thursday's NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) vs. Detroit Red Wings (+125)| O/U 6.5 (+102/-128)
We’re heading right into a high-stakes play-in game in the Eastern Conference between Pittsburgh and Detroit. The teams have split their season series 1-1, with the Penguins winning the most recent matchup 6-3 at home in PPG Paints Arena back in mid-March. Pittsburgh returns home after their four-game win streak ended on the road against Toronto.
Both teams need this win desperately but the Penguins are playing like the better team right now. Detroit’s disappointing 2-1 loss to Washington on Tuesday, despite recording 43 shots on goal to only 23 for the Capitals, shows their vulnerability. Pittsburgh’s goaltending has been sharper with Alex Nedeljkovic in the crease, who we can expect to patrol the goal once again on Thursday night. The Penguins have won each of their last seven games at home after going to overtime, plus, they beat the Red Wings at home less than a month ago.
We’re laying a bit of juice on Pittsburgh at -150 moneyline odds, but it’s the best bet to make in this must-win Eastern Conference matchup.
Bet: Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline (-150)
New York Islanders (-220) vs. Montreal Canadiens (+180) | O/U 5.5 (-140/+114)
The New York Islanders’ late resurgence has catapulted them back into playoff contention. Montreal remains one of the more scrappy opponents in the league who have already been eliminated, coming off of a 9-3 win against Philadelphia, effectively ending the Flyers’ season. The Canadiens haven’t won back-to-back games since March and the Islanders are peaking at the right time, winning five in a row and holding home ice advantage on Thursday night at USB Arena.
Oddsmakers have the goal total over juiced at -140, which seems likely to hit. Even more juiced is the Islanders’ moneyline odds, which are at -220. We could parlay the over and the Islanders’ moneyline odds to get to +140 odds, but two of the Islanders’ previous three home games have gone well under six total goals. Trends suggest that Montreal covering the puck line at +1.5 is a strong play, but New York is fresh off of beating the Predators and Rangers by two goals at home.
Let’s keep this simple and take the Islanders’ -1.5 at +118 odds, as they have the momentum and offensive talent to wind up winning by two goals over the Canadiens on Thursday night.
Bet: New York Islanders Puck Line -1.5 (+118)
Dallas Stars (-152) vs. Winnipeg Jets (+126) | O/U 5.5 (-120/-102)
Dallas and Winnipeg have both already locked up playoff seeds in the Western Conference but they’ll still be competing to improve their playoff seeding. The Stars have a chance to win the President’s Trophy, awarded to the team with the most regular season points. Dallas has gone on 9-1 in their last ten games to challenge the New York Rangers for the best regular season performance.
The Stars are loaded with talent on both ends of the ice and are coming off of wins over Buffalo and Colorado. Dallas returns home to face the Jets, who are on a four-game win streak of their own. A shocking 3-2 loss to Chicago is the only game where the Stars have stumbled in their last ten outings. Dallas has won 13 consecutive night games against Western Conference teams and have covered the puck line against Western Conference teams in each of their last 10 night games as well.
Since Dallas has won all three matchups against the Jets this season, including two of them by two or more goals, we’ll invest one final unit on the Stars to cover -1.5 at +168 odds as they attempt to jump the Rangers for the lead in the President’s Trophy race.
Bet: Dallas Stars -1.5 (+168)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
- NHL Prop Betting Cheat Sheet
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.