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Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (3/6)

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It's just a three-game slate in the NHL tonight, and below I'll break down all three games from a betting angle. Let's check out my top three plays on the ice tonight.

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Wednesday's NHL Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

Buffalo Sabres (+158) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-190) | 6.5 (-110/-110)

The night gets underway out East as the Sabres square off against the Maple Leafs in an Atlantic Division clash. Buffalo is currently sixth in the standings (62 points) while Toronto is third in the division (78 points). Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. 

Buffalo's finding a bit of a groove recently, going 7-4-0 in their last 11 games. The offense has been producing consistently, averaging 3.2 goals per game over the 11-game sample size. The Sabres will be tasked with scoring on the 19th-ranked Toronto defense, a unit that's surrendering 2.98 goals per game. If Buffalo can light the lamp three times tonight, there's no doubt in my mind that this game will go over the total of 6.5 goals.

As for Toronto, they've all been heating up, winning 10 of their last 13 games (10-3-0). These have been high-scoring games, where they're combining for 7.5 goals per contest. It's still an obvious game plan with the Leafs in that they want to rely on their dominant offense to win games. They bring in the third-ranked overall offense (3.6 GPG) and the second-ranked power play (27.75%). Things are still a bit shaky in their own zone, which should lead to plenty of scoring tonight in Ontario. I'll take the over. 

Bet: Over 6.5 Total Goals (-110)

Detroit Red Wings (+170) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-205) | 6.5 (-115/-105)

The Avalanche are back in action tonight after blanking the Blackhawks in a 5-0 home victory Monday night. They'll host the Red Wings, who've dropped two straight games and haven't played since Saturday. This cross-conference clash is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, CO. 

These two sides just played on February 22nd, and it was Detroit who escaped with a 2-1 overtime victory. Each team registered 30+ shots on goal and combined to go 1-7 on the power play. The Over seemed like the right play in that game, and it feels like the move in this contest. Both teams have been profitable to the Over this season, with Colorado going 36-27 to the Over while Detroit is 33-26. 

With these two dynamic offenses, I'm not going to overthink it - give me the Over. The Avs bring in the league's best offense, scoring 3.7 goals per game. The Wings are sixth (3.5 GPG). On the power play, the teams are seventh (24.20%) and 10th (22.73%), respectively. On the flip side, both defenses rank in the middle third of the league, so nothing too impressive. I think we're in for a barnburner tonight in Denver. 

Bet: Over 6.5 Total Goals (-115)

Ottawa Senators (-160) vs. Anaheim Ducks (+135) | 6.5 (-125/+105)

The NHL action wraps up out west with a cross-conference showdown between the Senators and the Ducks. Ottawa's in the cellar of the Atlantic Division (53 points) while Anaheim is seventh in the Pacific (47 points). The NHL nightcap starts at 10:00 p.m. ET from the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. 

I guess I understand why the Sens are favored in this game, but I think it leaves us a great opportunity to lock in the Ducks as underdogs. Honestly, this is just a pure fade of Ottawa. They've dropped four straight games, getting out-scored 19-9 over the four-game sample. 

Ottawa also has both of their top goaltenders (Joonas Korpisalo (.887 SV%) and Anton Forsberg (.888 SV%)) listed as day-to-day. That's not a great recipe for a team that's already 31st in the league defensively (3.44 GAA). They're also second-to-worst on the penalty kill, killing only 73.74% of opposing man-advantage opportunities. The Senators are in shambles as an organization, and while the Ducks are far from the cream of the crop, I have this matchup much tighter than the odds reflect. Let's take a shot on Anaheim, who's 2-1-0 in their last three games. 

Bet: Ducks Moneyline (+135)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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