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Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/1)

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We have a couple of huge Game 5s on the NHL schedule tonight. The Golden Knights (2-2) square off against the Stars, while the Oilers (3-1) look to put away the Kings as they return to Alberta.

Let's dive into the odds and break down each game from a sports betting perspective. 

Our NHL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily projections >>

Tuesday's NHL Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

Vegas Golden Knights (+135) @ Dallas Stars (-160) | O/U 5.5 (-125/+105) 

We knew we were in for a treat with this Vegas vs. Dallas series, and it hasn't disappointed through the first four games. Each game has been won by the road team, and the Golden Knights are certainly hoping that trend continues tonight. Game 5 is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the American Airlines Center in Dallas. 

With a +105 payout, I think this is a great spot to lock in the under. It's getting deeper in the series, and these Western Conference foes are really starting to figure each other out. Since the seven-goal outburst in Game 1, the scoring has dropped off as the subsequent three games have seen four goals, five goals and six goals, respectively. Interestingly, this has been the least-penalized series of the eight first-round matchups. Dallas has taken just six penalties (fewest), while Vegas has taken eight (second-fewest). Obviously, staying out of the box gives under bettors the edge. 

We've also seen the re-emergence of Jake Oettinger. The 25-year-old netminder has been lights out over his last three starts, making 87 saves on 93 shot attempts (.935 SV%). Overall, his GAA this postseason is 2.38. On the flip side, Logan Thompson has posted a 2.35 GAA and .921 SV% over his four starts in the series. Between the outstanding goaltending and the fact that these are two top-five teams in 5-on-5 blocked shots this postseason (Vegas is third with 81, and Dallas is fourth with 78), I think goals will be at a premium. Let's take a shot with the plus-money payout that comes with the under. 

Bet: Under 5.5 (+105)

Los Angeles Kings (+158) @ Edmonton Oilers (-190) | O/U 6.5 (+105/-125) 

The Oilers won both games in Los Angeles last week, which gives them a 3-1 series lead as they return home. Game 5 is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET from Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta. 

Coach Jim Hiller made the goaltending switch in Game 4, going from Cam Talbot to David Rittich. While it was a losing effort in a 1-0 affair, Rittich looked serviceable, making 12 saves on 13 shot attempts (.923 SV%). Rittich has now made three starts against Edmonton this year, and each game came in under seven goals (W: 4-0, L: 4-2, L: 1-0). The three games averaged just 3.7 combined goals per contest.

This isn't a groundbreaking theory, but it's worth stating that Los Angeles needs to stay out of the penalty box. Their PK is just 7/15 (46.67%) this postseason. That's why they're down 3-1, and more importantly for us, why the early games have snuck over the totals. Los Angeles took just one minor penalty in Game 4. While Edmonton used the man-advantage opportunity to score the game-winning goal, it still helped the Kings stay within reach (and the game finish under the total). Look for Los Angeles to emphasize avoiding penalties, which, combined with the goaltending change, should keep us under this inflated total. 

Bet: Under 6.5 (-125)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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