Top USFL Bets for Week 1 (2022)
It’s finally here! The opening week of the new USFL is upon us. Since FOX Bet Sportsbook released the opening lines on Friday night, the game totals have plummeted from wildly high marks ranging from 53.5 points to 56.5 points down to 44 points to 45 points. Still, the following bets have caught my eye.
Top Bets
Philadelphia Stars Moneyline (+115)
PHI/NO Over 45 Points (-110)
It’s a bummer the totals have cratered since the opening lines were released. However, I love the downward movement for a contest I expect to shoot out. Offensive-minded coaches Bart Andrus and Larry Fedora lead the Stars and Breakers. Moreover, they have two of my three favorite quarterbacks.
Philadelphia’s quarterback, Bryan Scott, has been a two-time MVP in The Spring League (TSL). On the other side, Kyle Sloter has been a preseason stud. I’m convinced the offenses will go blow for blow.
Interestingly, the Stars are underdogs, getting 2.5 points. I think they should be favored. As Bryan Knowles discussed for Football Outsiders, Andrus drafted many players, including Scott, who played for his TSL championship team. I don’t think the importance of continuity, familiarity, and instant gelling can be overstated in an upstart league. Thus, getting the Stars at plus money on the money line is sweet.
Houston Gamblers +3.5 Points (-110)
I understand why the Gamblers are underdogs against the Jeff Fisher-coached Panthers. However, I think blindly betting on Michigan due to recognizing Fisher is a mistake. Instead, Fisher feels like a square peg jammed into a round hole. In addition, his offensive coordinator, Eric Marty, is probably in over his skis.
As Anthony Amico of Establish The Run pointed out to his colleague, Cody Main, Marty was the head coach of a 4-7 Grambling State team that ran a balanced offense.
Marty is a stylistic fit with defensive-minded, ground-and-pound lover Fisher. However, is the dinosaur ball going to cut it in the modern football landscape? I don’t think so.
Kevin Sumlin is an offensive-minded head coach for the Gamblers whose background and mindset mesh better with present-day football. As a result, Houston is capable of upsetting the favored Panthers. Regardless, I’ll gladly take the added security of getting 3.5 points.
Tampa Bay Bandits -2.5 Points (-110)
Todd Haley brings familiarity to the USFL for NFL fans. Unlike Fisher, Haley’s bread is buttered on offense. Further, he has the other quarterback in my top three signal-callers in the USFL, Jordan Ta’amu.
Ta’amu is a dual-threat quarterback who led the St. Louis Battlehawks to a 3-2 record in the XFL. According to Pro Football Focus, Ta’amu was the XFL’s second-highest graded passer. He completed 72.4% of his passes with an 81.7% Adjusted completion percentage, had six big-time throws, and had only one turnover-worthy play on 134 pass attempts. Ta’amu’s unique skill-set opens up the playbook for Haley.
Tampa Bay’s opponent, the Pittsburgh Maulers, is led by the league’s only first-time head coach, Kirby Wilson. Wilson has spent most of his career as an NFL running backs coach. The veteran coach’s lack of experience as a head coach makes him someone I have an easy time betting against in the season’s opening week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.