Top Vikings vs. Broncos NFL Sunday Night Football Picks & Predictions (Week 11)
Let’s dive into Sunday Night Football for Week 10 and look at our top pick for Vikings vs. Broncos.
NFL Sunday Night Football Picks
Broncos Outlook
Both of these teams have drastically changed their season outlook for the better in recent weeks, with Denver winning 3 consecutive games and Minnesota rattling off 5 straight wins despite massive injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Denver's offense has quietly been pretty good under 1st year HC Sean Payton, ranking in the top half of the league in both points scored and yards gained per possession. Russell Wilson has been extremely efficient with a TD:INT ratio of 18:4, both of which rank in the top 3 of all QBs. Their running game has been among the tops in the league as well, ranking 6th overall with a yards per attempt of 4.6. Their overall defensive numbers are skewed by some pretty awful early-season performances (i.e. allowing 70 points to the Dolphins), but they have allowed 22 points or fewer in each of their last 4 games, which included a matchup against the Bills and 2 games against the Chiefs. Over that same time span, their defense generated 11 total turnovers to only 5 on the offensive side of the ball, propelling their defense to 6th overall in percentage of opposing drives that end in a turnover. It took about 1/3 of the season, but it looks like Sean Payton finally has Russell Wilson and this offense clicking, and their defense has really benefitted from it.
Vikings Outlook
Meanwhile, Minnesota has sustained injuries to debatably the #1 WR in the game in Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins, who was legitimately playing at an OPOY level before tearing his Achilles tendon. Another injury to rookie QB Jaren Hall forced them to turn to Joshua Dobbs, who led an incredible comeback victory in Atlanta before soundly beating the Saints at home last week. The Vikings have been sound on both sides of the ball, led offensively by a passing attack that ranks 10th in yards per attempt and top-3 in both TDs and INTs. They rank 11th or better in yards gained per possession, 1st downs converted and percentage of drives that end in a turnover. On the defensive side of the ball, Brian Flores has completely turned around what was one of the NFL's worst defenses in 2022. The Vikings rank in the top half of the league in both points and yards allowed per possession, percentage of opposing drives that end in a turnover, 1st downs allowed and net yards allowed per pass attempt. Their run defense has been especially stout, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, which is good for 5th in the NFL. In a week NFC playoff picture, Dobbs recent play has given the Vikings real hope to contend for a Wild Card spot, especially with the impending return of Justin Jefferson.
Betting Advice
While the Joshua Dobbs experience has been one of the best stories in the entire NFL this year, there's a reason why he's been a career journeyman as a backup QB. His wins with the Vikings came against two teams in the Falcons and Saints who have proven to not be very good, and he was 1-7 overall as a starter for the Cardinals to begin the season. It was announced on Saturday that Justin Jefferson will not be activated from the IR for this contest, and his favorite target in TJ Hockenson has taken an absolute beating over the fast few weeks. Denver's recent stint against undeniably tougher competition has been really encouraging, and I think this is a great spot for them at home as the far more healthy team. I think that their opportunistic defense forces Dobbs into turnovers, and I trust their offense to be able to convert those into points. I'll lay the points with the Broncos here as home favorites under a field goal.
Pick: DEN -2.5
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