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Tuesday’s Best MLB & WNBA Bets (5/30)

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No matter your sport of choice, there's always sports betting action to be had. We'll have you covered each and every day with our daily best bets. Here are all of our best bets across each major sport in action today.

Today's Best Bets

Here are today's best bets.

MLB Best NRFI Bet

Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres - NRFI (-113 FanDuel)

While it's true that Sandy Alcantara has not lived up to the expectations after winning the Cy Young in 2022, I've had some success backing him in the NRFI market, and his underlying metrics suggest that he's due for some positive regression. His xERA is a full 0.60 runs lower than his actual ERA, and his fastball is still one of the hardest that you'll see from a starting pitcher, ranking in the 96th percentile.

I've pointed this out in a previous article, but the Padres have been one of the biggest disappointments offensively in 2023. They rank in the bottom 10 in baseball in OPS, SLG, OBP and BA, and they rank dead last in the MLB in BA with runners in scoring position. They'll also be facing Sandy in their demonstrably worse hitting splits, as they are a much better-hitting team against LHP.

Ryan Weathers, a former #7 overall pick, will be getting the ball for the Padres to start. He's been pretty solid this season, and he's another example of a pitcher whose analytics suggest that he's actually been better than his numbers indicate. His xERA sits in the top 1/3 of the league at 3.49 (nearly a full 0.50 runs better than his actual ERA), and he excels at pitching to soft contact. He ranks in the top 30th percentile in average exit velo and xSLG, and he ranks in the top 10th percentile in barrel% and hard hit%.

The Marlins are not an offense that boasts a ton of power, ranking in the bottom half of the league in OBP and OPS, and ranking bottom 10 in HR and 2B. LoanDepot Park has traditionally favored pitchers as well, ranking 23rd in overall park factor and HR rate since 2021.

-Austin MacMillan

MLB Best Same Game Parlay

Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Guardians are pitching Cal Quantrill tonight. That's bad news for Cleveland fans.

Quantrill has had a 6.04 xFIP over the last month. He's struck out just over 12% of batters and has walked 8.1%. But his BABIP has only been .209, so he hasn't allowed as many hits as he should have.

That's about to come.

Quantrill has allowed a .333 wOBA and ISO of .225 to his last 49 lefties faced. The top three batters in the Orioles lineup are batting from the left side.

Adam Frazier has hit a .212 ISO and wOBA of .362 with 35% of line drives. Fraizer has also struck out just 8.2% of the time against lefties in the last month. He's going to put the ball in play. The same can be said about Adley Rutschman. He's struck out just 11.3% of the time against righties over the last month. Rutschman has also smacked a .212 ISO and wOBA of .382 with 26.3% of line drives in that time frame.

Finally, Anthony Santander has also slugged a .211 ISO and wOBA of .384. He's got a BABIP of .360 and continues to hit the ball in the air. If he can find the gap or a corner, he'll also earn an extra-base hit.

Parlay Odds: +815

-Jason Radowitz

Check out our other MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions:

WNBA Best Bets

Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream

After taking down Dallas on Sunday, I am a little surprised that the 3-1 Sky are underdogs to the 1-2 Dream in Atlanta.

Yes, Chicago has outperformed expectations based on the preseason buzz, but what they have done is not a flash in the pan. Courtney Williams has been an awesome facilitator with 5.3 assists per game, the fifth-best in the league, feeding Kahleah Copper and Marina Mabrey. Both are averaging over 15 points in each contest so far.

Of course, I am burying the lede by not mentioning the Sky defense. Their 90.5 defensive rating is second best only behind the juggernaut Aces, and they have faced some premier offenses and some premier players - such as Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally last time out - while still finding ways to win. 

Allisha Gray, Cheyenne Parker, and Rhyne Howard are all solid, and there's a reason the Dream offense is third-best in the league. However, combined with their sub-par defense and early-season inertia, I have to go with the Sky in this one.

Bet: Sky Moneyline (+125)

-Ryan Coleman

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