Tulane vs. Memphis: College Football Week 7 Odds & Picks (Friday)

We were on the precipice of a huge College Football Week 6, but a few things just didn’t break our way.

First, the fact that Jimbo Fisher could fumble that golden opportunity against Alabama is mind-blowing. I honestly do not know if anyone has done less with more talent in the last 25 years.

South Florida had three first-half turnovers and couldn’t catch up after that. Arkansas was never in doubt and had a chance at winning against Ole Miss but could not finish their valiant effort. We only won one of our three underdog ML picks, with Old Dominion besting Southern Mississippi.

We have eight more matchups to analyze this week. Here are all of my picks. And below we dive into Tulane vs. Memphis.

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College Football Week 7 Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple:  We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

• An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
• A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite’s plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
• An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
• A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here’s a summary of the teams we are looking for:

• Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
• Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
• Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
• Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

• Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
• Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
• Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
• Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
• Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
• PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
• Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
• Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
• RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)
• EPA/Att: Expected Points Added per rushing attempt

College Football Week 7 Odds & Picks: Tulane vs. Memphis

Tulane

• 10th in RROE on Standard Downs (-12.8%)
• 63rd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
• 29th in RROE on Passing Downs (-5.7%)
• 87th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Memphis

• 30th in Def Power Success Rate
• 25th in Def Stuff Rate
• 75th in Def Line Yards
• 70th in Def Rush Success Rate
• 105th in Def Rush IsoPPP
• 64th in Def Standard Downs Rate
• 118th in PFF Grade
• 47th in Def EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
• 8th in Def EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

This is a puzzling matchup for me. Memphis has some solid underlying metrics in Def Power Success Rate and Def Stuff Rate, but they are horrendous in Def Rush IsoPPP and PFF Grade. In an optimal situation, Tulane wants to establish the run. The issue is they are barely average in EPA with that strategy. If Tulane can adjust their playcalling in Passing Downs, they will have the opportunity to win this game. I cannot get past Memphis ranking bottom 30 in allowing explosive plays and PFF Grade. Those two paired together are usually a recipe for disaster. 

Bet: Tulane -3.5 (-110) + Tulane ML (-172) for Parlays

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!