U.S. Open 2022: Brooks Koepka Betting Odds, Preview, & Prediction

For the first time since 1988, the U.S. Open returns to The Country Club in Brookline, Mass, this Thursday. While most of the conversation swirls around the feud between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, the field proves promising. The 2022 PGA Tour average score sits at 70.76, on pace for the 3rd lowest average for a single season ever. 

The last time the course was used was the 1999 Ryder Cup, where Justin Leonard sank a 45-foot-birdie putt on the 17th hole to defeat José Maria Olazabal and give the Americans the lead in the 33rd Ryder Cup. 

Twenty-three years later, The Country Club has endured a variety of renovations that cost over $11 million. The course sits near the PGA average in size at 7,264 yards, but what separates it from average PGA courses is its small greens. The Country Club’s greens take up approximately 4,400 square feet, an entire third below the PGA course average (6,600 for all math nerds.) 

Since the Battle of Brookline, the course’s greens have expanded by 20%, but Pebble Beach remains the only championship golf course with smaller greens than Brookline’s. Those that thrive around the green will be at a massive advantage this weekend. For those betters out there, Will Zalatoris leads the entire PGA in shots gained approaching the green with a 97% success rate, and Jon Rahm leads golf in Greens hit in Regulation at 72.34%. 

Along with the challenging greens, the weather won’t make it any easier for the players, with winds projected at 10-20 mph and a 70% & 35% chance of rain on Friday and Saturday. Golfers with low spin rates and high hangtimes in swings would be at a slight disadvantage, such as Cameron Smith (197th out of 205 in average spin rate per swing) and the favorite, Rory McIlroy (T14th out of 203 in longest hang time per swing). Players with high spin rates that are less likely to get carried by the wind, such as Max Homa (6th in spin rate), and Sergio Garcia (10th in spin rate), could be at a slight advantage. 

The weather conditions, the state of the PGA Tour, and the course outlook all have something in common; nothing is certain, which could make this year’s U.S. Open one of the most dramatic golf tournaments in history. So here are some of the tournament’s favorites who could hoist the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday.

Brooks Koepka Stats to Know

• Projected Odds: +4400 (via Fanduel)
• World Ranking: 19
• Best U.S. Open Finish: Won (2017 & 2018)
• Last Four Tournament Finishes: T55, CUT, T12, CUT

Brooks Koepka’s Recent Form

Although Brooks Koepka is maintaining a top 20 world ranking, it has not been smooth sailing for Koepka. He finished eight over par at the PGA Championship in his last two tournaments and got cut from Augusta. His last win came over a year ago, but this season, Koepka has been rumored to have lingering wrist troubles that caused him to withdraw from the PGA Championship. 

Brooks Koepka’s U.S. Open Predictions

Since World War II, Brooks Koepka has been one of only two golfers to win back-to-back U.S. Opens. His generational resume in majors speaks for itself. Koepka ranks 4th all-time in major win%. He finishes top 2 in 22% of majors (7th all-time), top 5 in 38% of majors (8th all-time), and he’s one of seven golfers to finish top 10 in at least 50% of majors. But in 2022, Koepka has not generated the same output fans are used to seeing. In the tournaments he’s played, his driving distance remains top 20 in the PGA, but his ball-striking has taken a massive hit. After being 25th in strokes gained approaching the green in 2021, Koepka’s dipped to 130th in that department in 2022. In a course that isn’t too kind to inconsistent ball striking, it could be challenging for Koepka to win his third U.S. Open.

U.S. Open 2022 Golfer Profiles

• Rory McIlroy
• Jon Rahm
• Scottie Scheffler
• Cameron Smith
• Justin Thomas
• Collin Morikawa
• Patrick Cantlay
• Matthew Fitzpatrick
• Viktor Hovland
• Jordan Spieth
• Will Zalatoris
• Xander Schauffele

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