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UAB vs. Navy: College Football Week 11 Odds & Picks (2023)

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We are extremely close to breaking through and having a monster week of our Rush Rate Picks.

We went 4-3 ATS last week and missed our teaser and parlay.

It is another solid week to jump into enticing matchups with familiar teams. Let’s dive into our College Football Week 11 Rush Rate picks! And below we look into UAB vs. Navy.

College Football Week 11 Picks: UAB vs. Navy

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

UAB @ Navy

Navy

  • 2nd in RROE on Standard Downs (+28.6%)
  • 57th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 3rd in RROE on Passing Downs (+27.8%)
  • 103rd in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

UAB

  • 125th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 132nd in Def Stuff Rate
  • 131st in Def Line Yards
  • 114th in Def Standard Downs Rate
  • 133rd in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 95th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 111th in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 132nd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 117th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Navy let us down last week in what looked to be a smash spot. This week is an even better spot. UAB is arguably the worst rush defense in all of College Football. They are in the bottom 40 in every single defensive advanced rushing metric. Navy is having a less-than-stellar year, but this is the spot they should be able to right the ship.

Bet: Navy ML (+130) + Navy for Teasers

Record

  • ATS: 17-13 (+2.70 units)
  • Parlay: 0-4 (-6.50 units)
  • Teaser: 1-3 (-6.10 units)
  • Overall: -9.90 units

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple:  We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

  • An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
  • A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite's plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
  • An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
  • A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here's a summary of the teams we are looking for:

  • Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
  • Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
  • Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
  • Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

  • Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
  • Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
  • Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
  • Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
  • Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
  • PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
  • Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
  • Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
  • RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)
  • EPA/Att: Expected Points Added per rushing attempt

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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