UConn vs. Butler: College Basketball Odds & Picks (Friday)
Friday’s college basketball slate may only be comprised of 10 games, but it still serves as the perfect appetizer for a loaded weekend, headlined by an AP top-nine matchup between Illinois and Purdue. We offer our best prediction for that Big Ten matchup and analyze the only other game on the slate involving a Power 6 conference, as Butler hosts No .4 UConn at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
Here are Friday’s College Basketball best bets. Below we dive into UConn vs. Butler.
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Friday's College Basketball Best Bets: UConn vs. Butler
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
UConn vs. Butler
After coasting by Georgetown in its Big East opener, Butler has lost consecutive road games to Providence and St. John’s by double digits. However, before we analyze why the Bulldogs should be forgiven for their 10-point overtime loss to the Friars, it is important to understand the context in which they played the game.
Butler dug itself into a deep hole in the first half, trailing 15-0, which one would suspect had much to do with its compromised travel. However, the Bulldogs valiantly fought back and were within seconds of stealing a road victory against a now-ranked team, but the Friars hit a game-tying 3-pointer with two seconds left to force overtime.
Even though he was likely not 100%, Butler shooting guard DJ Davis still scored 22 points in 39 gutsy minutes, and he has now scored 12-plus points in five consecutive games. The Bulldogs are used to taking tough shots, as they entered the Providence game with a 21% low-quality shot rate per shot quality. However, they still impressively scored 75 points on a Friars defense that was ranked in the first percentile in catch-and-shoot rate allowed, as Providence typically makes teams beat them one-on-one. That bodes well for Butler’s chances of success against UConn. We do not expect the Bulldogs to be bullied on the glass like they were against St. John’s (they were out-rebounded 43-32), despite UConn ranking 10th in offensive rebounding rate, as the now-injured Donovan Clingan had much to do with that success on the glass.
UConn was held to an average of 64.5 points in consecutive games against Seton Hall and St. John’s, as Clingan played a combined 14 minutes in those matchups. His 7-foot-2 frame draws a lot of attention from defenses, and without his presence, teams can challenge the Huskies’ perimeter shooters much more.
Butler has covered just 30.4% (7-16-1 ATS) of its Big East games since the start of last season, compared to 70% (14-6-1 ATS) of its non-conference games. However, it is still 12-10-1 ATS at home overall in that span, and we expect it to play well in its first post-holiday home game, especially since it will not have travel issues to deal with.
Pick: Butler +6.5 (-110)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.