UConn vs. Marquette: Big East Tournament Championship Odds & Picks (2024)
Sometimes in college basketball, the cream actually does rise to the top. Arguably the top two teams in the Big East entering the season will indeed be playing for the conference title at Madison Square Garden. But the paths these two teams took feel entirely unique, even if they were ultimately expected to be here back in November.
For the defending national champion Connecticut Huskies, a spot in the Big East Tournament Final felt like a birthright. The Huskies essentially reloaded after last year’s title run and could be even better than last year’s team. The Huskies destroyed Xavier before outlasting a scrappy St. John’s team in a de facto road game at MSG.
For the defending Big East champion Marquette Golden Eagles, getting to this point felt improbable. Not because the Golden Eagles don’t deserve to be here. In fact, they especially deserve to be here after knocking out both Villanova and Providence — two teams that were desperately fighting to keep their seasons alive — all without star point guard Tyler Kolek, who has missed the team’s last five games with an oblique injury.
One of those games Kolek missed was against UConn, a game in which the Huskies won 74-67 on the road.
Will this be a coronation of a Huskies team that’s been the class of the conference all year long? Or does Shaka Smart’s club have one more gutsy effort left in it before Kolek likely returns for the NCAA Tournament?
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Big East Tournament Championship Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Connecticut Huskies (-8.5) vs. Marquette Golden Eagles, O/U: 141.5 (-110/-110)
Can Connecticut Dominate the Glass Again?
Connecticut swept the regular-season series with Marquette, and there’s been one common thread in both games: the Huskies have destroyed the Golden Eagles on the offensive glass.
In the first meeting, an 81-53 UConn drubbing, the Huskies pulled down an offensive rebound on a whopping 51.4% of their misses. In the second aforementioned meeting, Connecticut cleaned up the glass on 43.2% of their misses.
Marquette does a lot of things exceptionally well, but rebounding is their fatal flaw. The Golden Eagles rank outside the top 250 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. If Marquette is to have any chance in this game, they’ll have to find a way to keep the Huskies, specifically Donovan Clingan, off the glass.
Regression Could Hit the Golden Eagles Hard
In case matters couldn’t get any tougher for Marquette, they could be due for some regression against the 3-ball. Marquette ranks 334th in defensive three-point rate, and 198th in three-point percentage allowed. In other words, Marquette does not have a good perimeter defense.
However, that flaw hasn’t hurt Marquette thus far in New York City. Villanova and Providence combined to shoot 16-for-66 (24.2%) from beyond the arc against Marquette. They’ll now square off against a Huskies team that shot 50% from deep against St. John’s and has shot 36.9% on the year from three.
Prediction & Best Bet
This feels like a mighty tall task for a Marquette team that most likely won’t have Kolek and is a day removed from a physical war against Providence. Connecticut is simply the worst type of matchup for Marquette, who will hope it won’t have to get past UConn in the NCAA Tournament.
UConn can exploit Marquette’s weakness in defending the perimeter, and if they miss shots they should have no trouble pulling down a fair share of their misses. The Huskies rank 37th in offensive rebounding rate, while Villanova and Providence both ranked outside the top 200 in that category.
There’s a chance Marquette can find their way to the free throw line against a physical UConn defense that ranks 190th in defensive foul rate. However, the Golden Eagles typically shy away from drawing contact, ranking 348th in free throw rate. Marquette may need to be more assertive and play to their strengths scoring inside if they’re to keep up with the Huskies.
However, it feels like UConn has too many sizable advantages in this one. I’ll lay the points with the Huskies in what could be a rather anti-climactic finale to an entertaining tournament.
The Pick: UConn -8.5 (-115)