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UConn vs. Miami: 2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bets

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The contrast in 2023 could not be more pronounced than when four conventional collegiate basketball powers met for the Final Four last year, each bringing its own group of previous top-100 prospects and at least one past McDonald’s All-American. There are no previous McDonald’s All-Americans who will be wearing uniforms in Houston this weekend for the national semifinals between No. 4 seed UConn, No. 5 seed Miami, No. 5 seed San Diego State, and No. 9 seed FAU.

It’s the first time that’s happened since the NCAA started seeding the tournament in 1979, and it’s just one way to describe the unsung group of athletes who will be vying for a national championship on the sport’s biggest stage. Let’s take a look at some of our top picks and predictions for UConn vs. Miami.

2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bets: UConn vs. Miami

Check out our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s Final Four contest against UConn and Miami.

Same Game Parlay Picks

UConn vs. Miami

Leg 1: Jordan Hawkins – Over 15.5 Points (-145)

Jordan Hawkins, a sophomore guard, led the Huskies to their Elite Eight victory over the Bulldogs with a game-high 20 points on 6-of-15 shooting from the field. While he missed all but one of his two-point attempts, he made six of his ten three-point attempts and two out of three free throw attempts to help UConn advance to the Final Four. Hawkins’ capacity to heat up quickly might make the difference on Saturday night as UConn finds inventive ways to give him just the right amount of room to launch his shot.

Leg 2: Jordan Miller – Over 14.5 Points (-115)

Miami will probably be back in Coral Gables empty-handed from the Midwest Regional if wing Jordan Miller doesn’t put on an all-time performance (27 points, 7-7 FG, 13-13 FT). The difference in their Elite Eight victory was Miller’s ability to attack the paint and consistently get high-percentage chances, and if the Hurricanes have any chance of defeating the Huskies, it will probably be thanks to another outstanding performance from the 6-7 senior.

Leg 3: UConn -5.5 (-115)

The fifth-seeded Miami Hurricanes, who are tenacious and seeking their first participation in the National Championship in school history, will make it difficult for the fourth-seeded UConn Huskies (-5.5) to advance to the National Championship for the first time since 2014. (8:49 p.m. ET, CBS).

Connecticut has enjoyed a relatively stress-free NCAA Tournament journey so far, winning its games by an average margin of 22.5 points. In their most recent victory, the Huskies thrashed third-seeded Gonzaga 82-54 in the West Regional final. They did so by scoring 1.14 points per possession on 41.7 percent of their shots while holding Gonzaga’s offense, which was the best in the country, to 0.75 points per possession on 33.3 percent of their shots.

The Huskies, who entered the week with +125 odds to win their sixth National Championship in school history, are the team to beat because of their consistency on both sides of the floor. The Huskies’ hardest test thus far will come from the Hurricanes, whose offense, according to KenPom, is ranked sixth (119.6 points scored per 100 possessions) in this tournament, as they may be able to score at a rate high enough to keep their title aspirations alive.

Miami dominated down the line against Texas in the Final Eight, outscoring the Longhorns 30-14 in the final 10 minutes of play despite trailing by 13 points in the second half. Miami beat top-seeded Houston on Friday night by making 11 of 25 three-pointers, but it only made two of eight threes on Sunday to lose its place in the Final Eight. Miami won 88-81 thanks to their ability to get to the basket, which led to 32 free throw attempts and 28 makes.

For me, the biggest concern for the Hurricanes comes from Miami’s ability to compete with the Huskies on the boards, even if they have enough players who can create their shot off the bounce. Connecticut is equally dynamic in transition and executes its offensive setups so well in the half-court. Danny Hurley’s team returns to the biggest stage in college basketball due to their ability to dominate a vulnerable Hurricane interior defense without fouling.

Doing so while covering this number.

Parlay Odds: +320

Player Prop Bet Pick

(4) UConn (-5.5) vs. (5) Miami | Total 149.5

Yes, Gonzaga was the best team UConn faced outside of Miami to this point, and the trip to Houston wasn’t nearly as arduous as others, but no one is doing better this month.

Here, size will be important. A guard-focused club like Texas was the ideal match for Miami in many respects, but against  UConn, they have just too much bulk and size to overcome. The Huskies can continue to exert pressure inside and expect big man Adama Sanogo to lead that effort.

Prop Pick: Adama Sanogo Over 8.5 Rebounds (-105)

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