Updated UConn vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Pick & Predictions for 2022 NCAA Tournament

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 13, 2022

UConn Huskies vs. New Mexico State Aggies 2022 NCAA Tournament Game Preview

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UConn Huskies vs. New Mexico State Aggies Match Up Overview

	UConn	New Mexico State
Conference	Big East	WAC
W-L	23-9	26-6
AdjEM	18th	80th
AdjO	21st	87th
AdjD	35th	73rd
Tempo	291st	224th
eFG%	194th	79th
TO%	110th	313rd
OR%	2nd	39th
FTR	162nd	52nd
DeFG%	25th	20th
DTO%	204th	271st
DR%	148th	95th
DFTR	228th	106th
Luck	247th	17th

Stats via KenPom.

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UConn Huskies Preview

UConn is slowly picking up steam as a sleeper Final Four squad. This is a well-rounded team that ranks top-30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. R.J. Cole and Adama Sanogo lead this team with effective shooting, and elite rebounding.

Despite not having the best offense, UConn ranks 14th in the nation in second-chance conversion percentage and third in offensive rebounding percentage. Even when they are missing shots, the Huskies can keep up. Only one of their losses was by a margin of double digits, and six of their eight losses were by four points or fewer.

On the other side of the ball, UConn allows essentially nothing inside the arc with the sixth-best 2pt% defense. If UConn faces teams that don't defend the interior well, the Huskies can easily take advantage. Where they might falter is against elite exterior-shooting squads; if they have a kryptonite, itâ€™s their three-point defense.

Connecticut's resume includes a number of respectable losses combined with some big wins over teams such as Auburn and Villanova. I trust this squad because we haven't really seen them fall apart in any games this season. A lot of experts have pinned this team as a dangerous dark horse, and I could not agree more.

New Mexico State Aggies Preview

The Western Athletic Conference was one of the most underrated conferences in the nation this year, with four legitimate squads. New Mexico State fought its way through the WAC tournament to earn its ticket to the Big Dance.

The Aggies have a top-100 offense and defense and rank 25th in defensive 3pt%. Star forward Teddy Allen went off in the WAC tournament semifinal with 25 points and six assists. When he fouled out in the WAC tourney final, the rest of the team stepped up, with four players scoring in the double figures.

Despite making the tournament and winning the WAC, this New Mexico State team could be a little overrated, considering they ranked 17th in the luck metric, per KenPom. This squad fell to Chicago State, the 339th-ranked team in the nation and a team that no top-100 team should ever lose to.

New Mexico State doesn't take care of the ball well, with a 20% offensive turnover rate, and they donâ€™t shoot well from deep. The Aggies are capable of pulling off a first-round upset. Their ability to limit teams' scoring allows them to stay in games. Donnie Tillman is out for the season, limiting their depth, but this squad has shown the ability to share the rock and lean on their depth.

Rapid Prediction for UConn Huskies vs. New Mexico State Aggies

No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State UConn finished third in the tough Big East conference and played a competitive game against Villanova in the semi-finals. They had an early-season win against Auburn which became even bigger as the Tigers would win 17 straight wins after the double-overtime loss. New Mexico St. claimed the WAC regular-season and tournament title to get the automatic bid. They have a good front-court led by Teddy Allen, whoâ€™s averaging nearly 20-points per game and could be challenging to UConnâ€™s RJ Cole. The challenge for the Aggies is going to be the battle on the boards, especially against forward Adama Sanogo. Connecticut is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country as their 36.8% rate was second-best. Sanogo is a high-percentage shooter, and he should help ride the Huskies to a first-round win.

UConn Huskies vs. New Mexico State Aggies Round 1 Game Pick

UConn -7

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