The UFC returns to NYC this weekend after another successful night of fights on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi last weekend. In what will be back-to-back PPV cards, this one is even better than the last, and it boasts three fights worthy of main-event status.

Let’s take a closer look at the co-main and see where the value lies.

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UFC 268: USMAN VS. COVINGTON 2
WEILI ZHANG	-120	-120	-120	-120	NL	-115
ROSE NAMAJUNAS	EVEN	EVEN	+102	EVEN	NL	-106

Betting Profile: Rose Namajunas (11-4-0)

Last Five Fights

W

W

L

W

W

A black belt in Taekwondo, Karate, and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a more decorated champion in all of MMA than Rose Namajunas. The current champ of the strawweight division, Namajunas, will look to defend her belt for the first time. She’ll have to do so against the same opponent she won it from.

A closer look at the metrics reveals that Namajunas may lack the striking capability of the best in her weight class, but she makes up for it with elite grappling. Coming into this fight, she is averaging 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes. She also averages more than double the takedown accuracy of her opponent at 53%.

Betting Profile: Weili Zhang (21-2-0)

Last Five Fights

L

W

W

W

W

Before losing the belt to Namajunas the last time she was in the octagon, Zhang’s last loss came in the first fight of her career back in November 2013. Zhang had defended her belt once before losing it to Namajunas in April via a first-round KO (head kick). She’s coming into this one looking for revenge.

Despite losing via KO, Zhang still comes into this one as the better striker. Per 15 minutes inside the octagon, Zhang averages 6.36 strikes, 45% of which qualify as significant. An elite 48% of her wins have come via KO/TKO.

Bottom Line?

With the first matchup between these two ending quickly and violently, the odds favor another early finish, and I think they do so incorrectly. Half of these fighters’ last 10 bouts have ended via decision. In a near pick’em, oddsmakers agree this fight is about as close to even as you can get.

This contest will mean a lot for both fighters’ legacies, so I expect a conservative display early. That will lead to a lot of time getting eaten up before the action really gets going, allowing this one to go the distance.

Pick: Will this fight go the distance? – Yes +104

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Johnny Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.