UFC 274 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza 2 (2022)

We have the first of two belts on the line for UFC 274 as the Women’s Strawweight Title is up for grabs. As a -195 betting favorite, Champion Rose Namajunas will defend her belt against Carla Esparza.

This fight is the second time these two fighters have scrapped as Esparza beat Namajunas via third-round submission in December of 2014 in the finale of “The Ultimate Fighter.” That fight awarded Esparza the inaugural Strawweight Title, a belt she would lose to Joanna Jedrzejczyk just three months later.

These two fighters are much different from the last time they squared off. Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this title fight.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Profile: Rose Namajunas (12-4-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)

Since her loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz in 2016, Namajunas has been on an incredible run as she has won six of her last seven fights since then. Namajunas has won the title twice and defended it twice in that stretch.

A trend to watch is the length of fights when the title is on the line. Obviously, title fights are five rounds instead of three, and this increase in fight length has resulted in more finishes for Namajunas.

In UFC title fights, Namajunas has failed to reach the distance in four of six bouts. Over those six fights, Namajunas has two KO/TKOs victories, one submission loss, and one KO/TKO loss.

Namajunas is a very balanced fighter and can win vertically and on the mat. Entering this fight, she has a 71% control rate of clinch/ground time and a 42% significant strike accuracy.

Betting Profile: Carla Esparza (19-6-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Carla Esparza has shot back up the rankings as she rides a five-fight win streak entering this title fight. Over that stretch, four of the five contests have gone to decision.

However, those were all three-round bouts. In her two five-round title fights, neither scrap went the distance, as she submitted Namajunas in the third round to win the title and lost in the second round via KO/TKO to Jedrzejczyk in her lone title defense.

I expect Esparza to go to her ground game the same way she beat Namajunas back in 2014. Entering this fight, Esparza has attempted 6.36 takedowns per five minutes when at distance.

Esparza could succeed on the mat once again as she has a 65% control rate of clinch/ground time with 4.92 minutes of control time per 15. As we saw in their previous fight, Namajunas does have the potential to be submitted.

Bottom Line

I have this fight going one of two ways, either a Namajunas KO/TKO or Esparza submission. I think it honestly could go either way, though I lean towards the favorite to defend the belt.

We are getting a ton of value in the total rounds to go under in this fight because of Esparza’s recent fights going the distance. However, as I mentioned, none of those were title fights.

These two fighters have combined to go under 4.5 rounds 75% of the time in title fight situations. Like the first time they fought, I got this fight to end before the final bell.

Best Bet: Namajunas/Esparza u4.5 Rounds (+150)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.