UFC 276 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway (2022)

While the main event on Saturday, Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier for the middleweight belt, is the headliner, the co-headliner is also a title fight and what I see as a much more enticing watch. With the featherweight belt on the line, Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway will fight for a third time, as Volkanovski will look to retain his belt and move to 3-0 in the rivalry.

Realistically, a loss for Holloway would be his last chance to regain the title with Volkanovski champ. But will he finally prevail? Let’s take a closer look.

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PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS
MAX HOLLOWAY	+151	+155	+154	+160	+170	+151	+151
ALEX VOLKANOVSKI	-190	-190	-200	-190	-200	-190	-190

Betting Profile: Alexander Volkanovski (24-1-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

It has been nearly 10 years since we last saw Volkanovski lose in an octagon, as the featherweight champion has won 10 straight since joining the UFC in 2016. Winning the belt vs. Holloway in December 2019 in decisive (unanimous decision) fashion, the two immediately rematched seven months later, and while closer (split decision), it was still a Volkanovski win.

A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Volkanovski is also an elite Muay Thai striker, with 59.38% of strikes being significant (vs. 4.82%). As far as the grappling metrics go, Volkanovski comes into this fight with a significant edge in takedowns, averaging 1.95 per 15 minutes (vs. .31).

Betting Profile: Max Holloway (23-6-0)

Last Five Fights (W-L-L-W-W)

Winning the interim UFC featherweight belt in 2016 with a TKO win over Anthony Pettis, Holloway held the belt for four fights before running into Volkanovski. To this day, Volkanovski is the only fighter to defeat Holloway at featherweight since Conor McGregor back in 2013.

What Holloway lacks in accuracy on his striking, he makes up for in volume, landing 7.38 (vs. 6.63) per 15 minutes inside the octagon. He’s also more accurate with his takedowns at 66.7% (vs. 36.5%) and will have a noticeable size advantage in this fight, standing 5″ taller.

Bottom Line

Any fighter that has wins over Jose Aldo (two) in his prime, Charles Oliveira and Anthony Pettis, should not be taken lightly. Yet, that feels even longer ago than it was. When Holloway steps into the octagon on Saturday, he’ll be doing so on 228 days of inactiveness, and there is no room for ring rust against a fighter of Volkanovski’s caliber.

Outside of Volkanovski’s TKO win over Chan Sung Jung in April, nine of this fighter’s last 10 fights have gone the distance, which speaks to the over being shaded to -195.

While Holloway will no doubt go down as one of the best fighters in UFC history, I currently see more dog in Volkanovski’s game and like for the champion to retain his belt after what should be a war of a fight.

Best Bet: Alex Volkanovski (-195 via DraftKings)

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