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UFC 278 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards (8/20)

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Check out our top odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s UFC action: Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards.

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UFC Strategy & Advice

Betting Profile: Kamaru Usman (20-1-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Winning 18 straight fights, including all in the UFC, Usman has climbed to the top of the mountain to become the #1 pound-for-pound MMA fighter on the planet. Having defended his welterweight belt five times, he’s done so three times inside of the distance and will look to make it four in this fight vs. the #2 contender Edwards.

Hold large striking advantages and, as well as takedown advantages, Usman has all the tools in his arsenal to make rather light work of this fight if he chooses to. He also has a large advantage in opponent history, having picked apart the best this division has to offer.

Betting Profile: Leon Edwards (19-3-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Joining the UFC in 2014, Edwards has lost just two times, with one coming against Usman in December 2015 in the future champion’s UFC debut. Since then, however, Edwards would go on to win eight straight and nine total, throwing out a March 2021 no contest over Belal Muhammad following an incidental eye poke.

Coming into this fight, Edwards holds a slight advantage in submission average per 15 minutes but loses the striking battle in spades against a fighter in Usman, who is amongst the most elite strikers in the entire sport.

Bottom Line

A closer look at Edwards’ recent fight history shows a lack of quality that I don’t think is being baked into this line. Outside of his NC vs. Muhammad, Edwards has beaten aging fighters in the last few years in Nate Diaz, Rafael Dos Anjos, Gunnar Nelson, and Donald Cerrone; the average age of 37 and total fights of 39.

With no one else to beat in this division, look for Usman to handle Edwards inside the distance and move on to another division to dominate.

Best Bet: Kamaru Usman Inside the Distance (+250 via DraftKings)

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