UFC 278 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Marcin Tybura vs. Alexander Romanov (2022)
UFC 278 is set to get underway this Saturday at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. This card features plenty of big names, including Jose Aldo, Merab Dvalishvili, Paulo Costa, and Luke Rockhold.
Capping off the night is a welterweight championship bout between reigning champion Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards. This main event is a rematch of their 2015 scrap, a fight in which Usman won via unanimous decision.
Prior to the main card, we have a heavyweight fight between Marcin Tybura and Alexander Romanov. Opening as a massive -350 favorite, Romanov has been slightly bet up to -360.
As of Wednesday morning, 88% of the bets and 91% of the handle are on Romanov. Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this heavyweight bout.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Betting Profile: Marcin Tybura (22-7 Overall / 9-6 UFC)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-L)
Currently ranked #11 in the heavyweight division, Tybura will look to keep his momentum going against Alexander Romanov. While Tybura has won five of his last six fights, four of those victories came against unranked fighters.
In fact, eight of Tybura’s nine wins in the UFC have come against unranked opponents. His one win against a ranked opponent was against Serghei Spivac (current #12 heavyweight).
More often than not, when Tybura fights tougher competition, he loses. We have seen this trend develop throughout his career, whether it was his loss to Derrick Lewis (#7), Shamil Abdurakhimov (#14), or Alexander Volkov (#8).
Tybura does a good job mixing in some grappling with his striking, evidenced by his eight takedowns over his last six fights. However, this is not a fight that Tybura wants to bring to the mat as Romanov is the superior grappler.
This means that he will most likely have to win this fight with his striking ability, which is also arguably inferior to Romanov’s.
Betting Profile: Alexander Romanov (16-0 Overall / 5-0 UFC)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
Currently ranked #13 in the heavyweight division, Romanov will look to continue his meteoric rise in the fight game. Looking to keep that zero in the loss column, Romanov has the biggest test of his young career in front of him.
Despite going 5-0 to start his UFC journey, all five of those wins came against unranked opponents. That being said, I believe Romanov is ready and capable to start climbing the ladder toward the top of the heavyweight division.
A superior wrestler, Romanov boasts a 6.46 takedown average at 69% accuracy. Not only does Romanov dominate on the mat, but he has some power as well, evidenced by his knockout win over Jared Vanderaa.
While Romanov is thought of for his ground game, his striking is extremely efficient as well. In his UFC career, Romanov has landed 4.23 strikes per minute at 52% accuracy.
Bottom Line
While Romanov is superior in most aspects of this fight, I think Tybura’s strong takedown defense (82%) can keep this fight standing. If that is the case, then Tybura’s chance for success increases.
That being said, I still give Romanov the advantage in this fight if it is standing. His efficient striking and size could be enough to put Tybura out.
We have seen Tybura’s chin be his undoing multiple times, evidenced by his knockout losses to Augusto Sakai, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Derrick Lewis. If you are looking for a way to back Romanov in this fight without laying heavy juice, then his knockout prop is worth a shot.
Prediction: Alexander Romanov to Win via Knockout in Rd 2
Best Bet: Alexander Romanov to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+150)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.